-Soybean sales at top end of expectations
-Corn sales slightly above range of expectations – 2nd highest of marketing year
-Wheat sales slightly above range of expectations
-SBM/SBO sales respectable – as expected
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 12/05/19, were 1.050 MMT (38.6 million bushels), near the top end of market expectations of 500k-1.1 MMT, rebounding from the previous week’s 25.1 million bushels, but still well off the prior four weeks’ average sales of 55.0 million bushels/week. However, with just 177k tonnes in new sales reported to China, this week’s sales were respectable. The largest sales were accounted for by unknown with at least 505k tonnes, though, with the next largest reported buying being Pakistan with 70k tonnes. Year ago sales this week were just 20.4 million bushels, allowing total commitments of 992 million bushels to further gain on year ago comparisons, now up 9.3% from total sales at this time last year of 908 million. However, this is likely to notably change over the coming weeks as massive sales last year of 192 million bushels (5.23 MMT) were posted in total for the next two weeks. Soybean sales will need to average roughly 21.0 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 23.3 mil/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales were respectable at 874k tonnes (34.4 million bushels), beating market expectations of 400-800k tonnes and rising from the previous week’s 21.5 million bushels. While sales were the 2nd highest of the first 14 weeks of 2019/20, they were still a bit below last year’s same-week sales of 35.6 million bushels. As was the case in soybeans, the next two weeks last year saw massive corn export sales of 145 million bushels (3.68 MMT) so look for weak year-over-year comparisons forthcoming. Total commitments of 610 million bushels remain down 44% from last year’s 1.089 billion at this time, leaving corn sales needing to average roughly 30.9 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 1.850 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 23.1 million/week average from this point forward. Solid buying by Mexico was seen last week of 520k tonnes, which while nice to see, left just 354k tonnes (14 mil bu) in total buying by all others.
U.S. wheat sales of 503k tonnes (18.5 mil bu) beat market expectations of 200-450k tonnes and rebounded from the previous week’s near marketing year low 8.4 million bushels, but were still notably below year ago same-week sales of 27.7 million bushels. Accordingly, total commitments of 623 million bushels fell to a marketing year year-over-year gain low of just 3.7% to last year’s 601 million bushels. While wheat sales have been back and forth on a weekly basis of late, sales have averaged 14.6 million bushels/week over the last six weeks, keeping pace with the roughly 13.3 million bushel/week average needed through the end of May in order to reach the USDA’s just-raised 975 million bushel export projection.
Soybean meal sales were a 4-week high at 239k tonnes, falling within market expectations of 125-300k tonnes, while rising from the previous week’s 181k tonnes and notably outpacing last year’s same-week poor sales of just 51k tonnes. Total commitments are down 13% from last year vs USDA projecting a 3% decline in annual exports, with sales needing to average roughly 154k tonnes/week vs last year’s 148k/week average from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s export projection. Soybean oil sales of 30k tonnes were at the top end of market expectations of 8-30k tonnes thanks to the previously-reported 20k tonne sale to Morocco. Total commitments are up 7% from last year thanks to this week’s solid sales as they were just unchanged year-over-year last week, while the USDA is projecting a 12% decline in soybean oil exports this year. Sales will need to average roughly 10k tonnes/week through next September vs last year’s 14k/week average from this point forward.
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