-Soybean sales within expectations
-Corn sales within expectations, but remain historically weak
-Wheat sales at bottom of expectations, near marketing year low
-SBM/SBO sales solid
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 11/07/19, were solid at 1.253 MMT (46.0 million bushels), down from the previous week’s 64.3 million bushels, but still good overall and within market expectations of 800k-1.4 MMT. This week’s activity included 625k tonnes in new sales reported for China specifically and at least 425k tonnes in new net sales to unknown destinations. While it remains encouraging to see the new sales to China, it’s hard to ignore the fact that only 203k tonnes in total sales this week were reported to destinations other than China and unknown. Sales on the books to China now total 7.91 MMT vs just 646k tonnes at this time last year, while outstanding “unknown” sales of 3.21 MMT are solidly below last year’s 5.52 MMT at this time. Total commitments to all destinations of 818 million bushels are up marginally from last year’s 804 million, but when does the fact that total sales to all other destinations than China of 528 million bushels are down massively from last year’s 780 million (-32%) begin to gain some attention? Soybean sales will need to average roughly 23.1 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 23.5 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales of 582k tonnes (22.9 million bushels) were within market expectations of 400-800k tonnes, were up from the previous week’s 19.2 million and were actually the 2nd highest of the first 10 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year, but were still 26% below the needed average weekly sales of 31.1 million bushels/week just to reach the USDA’s 1.850 billion bushel export projection. It’s all relative. Total commitments of 491 million bushels are still down 47% from last year vs the USDA’s export projection reflecting an expected 10.5% decline in exports on the year. To highlight the exceptionally poor export situation for corn at the moment, the largest sales of the week were just 98k tonnes to El Salvador. Ouch. Corn sales will need to run roughly 25% stronger than last year, on average, through the end of 2019/20 if the USDA’s export projection is to be reached.
U.S. wheat sales were quite disappointing at just 239k tonnes (8.8 million bushels), at the bottom of expectations of 200-500k tonnes, down from the previous week’s 13.2 mil bu, last year’s same-week sales of 16.1 mil bu and were the 2nd lowest of the 23 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year so far. The largest sales of the week went to Nigeria with 51k tonnes. Total commitments of 558 million bushels are now up just 7% from last year’s 521 million after being up 23% on the year in early September, while the USDA’s 950 million bushel export projection reflects an expected 1.5% increase in exports from last year. Wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.8 million bushels/week in order for the USDA’s export projection to be reachable vs last year’s 14.8 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week were strong at 345k tonnes, at the top of market expectations of 100-350k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 262k tonnes and were the 2nd largest of the first six weeks of 2019/20. Total commitments of 4.513 MMT are down 14% from last year, though, as the year-over-year deficit has actually increased since the start of the marketing year as SBM sales have averaged 236k tonnes/week so far vs last year’s 277k tonnes/week during the same period. The USDA is estimating 2019/20 SBM exports to decline 1.5% from last year. Soybean oil sales of 31k tonnes were slightly above the range of market ideas of 5-25k tonnes and were the best of the first six weeks of 2019/20. Total commitments are up 2% from last year vs the USDA’s export projection reflecting an expected 12% decline in exports on the year.
