-Corn sales sharply larger than expected – marketing year high
-Soybean sales sharply higher than expected – 20-week high
-Wheat sales as expected
-SBM sales at top of expectations/SBO sales as expected
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 3/03/22, were quite large at 2.144 MMT (84.4 million bushels), sharply above market expectations of 500k-1.2 MMT, last week’s 19.1 mil bu, last year’s 15.5 mil bu and was a new marketing year high. The largest activity for the week was to unknown with new sales of at least 1.0 MMT, with the largest reported sales going to Japan with 381k and Mexico with 331k. Activity by China was minimal, as they now have 6.6 MMT of unshipped U.s. corn still on the books vs 11.3 MMT at this time last year. Total commitments of 1.976 billion bushels are now down only 16% from last year’s 2.343 billion, the smallest year-over-year deficit in six weeks, with sales now needing to average roughly 19 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s just-raised 2.500 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 16.5 million/week average from this point forward. This week’s report reflects the first significant increase in sales activity since the Russian/Ukrainian conflict heated up. New crop sales were only 22k tonnes vs expectations of 50k-700k tonnes, with 22/23 total sales of 76 mil bu comparable to last year’s new crop sales of 61 mil bu at this time.
U.S. soybean sales last week were 2.204 MMT (81.0 mil bu), sharply above market expectations of 900k-1.7 MMT, up from the previous week’s 31.5 mil bu, significantly larger than last year’s 12.9 million and were the highest in 20 weeks, as well as being the 2nd highest of the marketing year so far. Total net old crop sales to China were 1.030 MMT, with unknown 213k tonnes, Mexico 223k, Egypt 129k and Vietnam 115k. Total commitments of 1.924 billion bushels are now down only 13% from last year’s 2.218 billion, a marketing year low deficit which should clearly continue to decline with USDA’s 2.050 billion bushel export projection reflected an expected 8% decline in exports for the year. Soybean sales will only need to average roughly 6.5 million bushels/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s projection vs last year’s 2.8 mil/week average as 21/22 exports are clearly looking likely to exceed the USDA’s ideas. New crop sales were 895k tonnes (32.9 mil bu), at the bottom of expectations of 900k-1.5 MMT, with China buying 797k tonnes, putting 2022/23 total sales so far at 281 mil bu vs new crop sales a year ago of 187 million.
U.S. wheat sales were 307k tonnes (11.3 mil bu), in line with expectations of 200-400k tonnes and nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 11.0 million and last year’s same-week sales of 12.2 mil bu. While far from exciting, wheat sales over the last three weeks were 11.0-19.0 million bushels/week, easily exceeding the minimal 2-3 million/week average we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s just-lowered 800 million bushel export projection. While not expected to be blockbuster in nature, we do expect the U.S. wheat export program to at least be respectful over the final three months of the marketing year, resulting in 21/22 exports proving a bit larger than USDA is currently estimating. The largest sales of the week were to Mexico with 138k tonnes, the Philippines 133k tonnes and Japan 26k. Total old crop commitments of 683 mil bu are now down 23% from last year’s 886 million vs USDA estimating this year’s exports to be down 19%. New crop sales remain minimal with 63k tonnes (2.3 mil bu) last wee vs expectations of 50-300k tonnes, bringing 22/23 total sales so far to 25 mil bu vs 33 million in new crop sales last year at this time.
U.S. soybean meal sales were 316k tonnes, at the top end of expectations of 75-350k, up sharply from the previous week’s 95k, beating last year’s 262k and were the highest in five weeks. Total commitments are up 3% from last year vs USDA estimating a 4.4% increase for the year, leaving sales needing to average roughly 129k tonnes/week over the remainder of the marketing year, right in line with year ago sales from this point forward. Soybean oil sales last week were 16.6k tonnes, in line with expectations of 0-30k and again easily beating the minimal 2-3k tonnes/week average sales we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s just-raised 1.625 billion pound export projection, which reflects an expected 5.7% decline from last year. SBO total commitments are now only 3.5% below year ago levels after being down more than 20% in early December.
