-Corn sales within expectations
-Soybean sales within expectations
-Wheat sales minimal/lower than expected
-SBM sales better than expected/SBO sales minimal as expected
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 1/27/22, were 1.175 MMT (46.3 million bushels), within market expectations of 600k-1.3 MMT and comparable to sales of the previous two weeks of 55.2 million and 43.0 million bushels, but went up again massive sales last year this week of 293 million bushels as China made significant purchases. Given this, total commitments of 1.776 billion bushels fell to a near 20% deficit to last year’s 2.209 billion after running 9-10% below last year in recent weeks. China made another significant purchase of U.S. corn in mid-March last year so it is unlikely the year-over-year shortfall in sales will gain much ground anytime soon. Activity by China for the week was minimal again, with their total purchases sitting at 12.4 MMT vs last year’s 17.7 MMT at this time, while unshipped sales are now at 9.0 MMT vs 11.6 MMT a year ago this week. The largest sales this week went to Japan with 417k tonnes and Mexico with 212k tonnes. We estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 20.2 million bushels/week through the end of August vs last year’s 18.3 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean sales of 1.096 MMT (40.3 mil bu) were at the upper end of market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, up from the previous week’s 37.7 million bushels and were the highest in seven weeks. The largest sales of the week, by far, went to Mexico with 401k tonnes, followed by Egypt with 135k, while China actually reflected net cancellations for the week of 29k tonnes, as did Singapore with 66k tonnes. China now has only 2.5 MMT of unshipped soybean purchases on the books (could be 3.5 MMT with unknown sales) vs 3.0 MMT a year ago (~4.5-5.0 MMT with unknown). Total commitments of 1.662 billion bushels are down nearly 23% from last year’s 2.150 billion, but will continue to gain year-over-year in the months ahead as year ago sales from mid-February forward were minimal, while sales this year could/should maintain a bit better pace given the reductions in the South American crop. We estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 12.8 million bushels/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s minimal sales from this point forward of only 4.5 million bushels/week. Soybean sales over the last four weeks have averaged a respectable 32.4 mil bu/week, as a very close eye will be kept on sales activity in the weeks ahead for signs of additional business as a result of the South American crop ideas, as well as the USDA’s U.S. export projection next week if they show any optimism of better business to come. New crop sales were solid at 882k tonnes, with 660k to China, bringing their purchases for 2022/23 to 1.4 MMT vs now new crop purchases at this time last year.
U.S. wheat sales were horrible at a mere 58k tonnes (2.1 mil bu), well below market expectations of 200-675k tonnes, near the marketing year low of 1.8 mil bu and down sharply from last week’s 24.9 million and last year’s 23.7 million bushels. This week’s activity included net reductions/cancellations in sales to Mexico of 21k tonnes, Philippines of 47k tonnes and unknown of 75k tonnes, while the largest sales went to Nigeria with only 52k tonnes. Total commitments of 634 million bushels are down 23% from last year’s 824 million, while USDA is projecting this year’s exports down “only” 17% for the year. With 17 weeks left in the 2021/22 marketing year, it is now mission critical for wheat sales to maintain a respectable pace if the USDA’s 825 mil bu export projection is to be reached. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 10 mil bu/week through the end of May vs last year’s 7.0 million/week from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week were impressive at 606k tonnes, easily a marketing year high (previous high was 365k), solidly above market expectations of 100-450k tonnes and up from the previous week’s 330k and last year’s 301k tonnes. The largest sales went to Colombia with 175k tonnes and the Philippines with 139k. Improved demand of U.S. SBM has been seen in recent week with sales averaging 417k tonnes/week the last three weeks vs 304k/week during the same period last year. Total commitments are now up 4% from last year vs USDA projecting exports to be up nearly 2% for the year. Soybean oil sales were minimal at 4.1k tonnes vs expectations of 0-30k, with total commitments down 17% from last year and in line with the USDA’s projected decline in exports for 2021/22. Given the previous strong sales during Nov-Dec, we estimate soybean oil sales will only need to average roughly 2k tonnes/week to reach the USDA’s export projection vs 3.1k/week from this point forward last year.
