-Corn sales slightly above expectations
-Soybean sales at bottom end of expectations
-Wheat sales at top end of expectations but still tepid
-SBM sales at top end of expectations, SBO sales respectable
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 1/13/22, were 1.091 MMT (43.0 million bushels), slightly above market expectations of 500k-1.0 MMT, rebounding solidly from the two previous holiday-weeks’ sales of 17.9 million and 10.1 million bushels, but were still below last year’s same-week sales of 56.6 million bushels. Over the last four weeks, corn sales averaged 30.0 million bushels/week vs 45.2 million/week during the same period last year. China remains essentially absent from the U.S. corn market, seeing a net change in commitments this week of only 9k tonnes with nearly all activity reflecting a 68k tonne switch from “unknown.” China still has 9.5 MMT of unshipped U.S. corn purchases on the books vs 6.0 MMT at this time last year. Total commitments of 1.675 billion bushels continue to decline relative to last year, now at a season-high 9.1% deficit vs 1.843 billion a year ago, while USDA’s 2.425 billion bushel export projection reflects an estimated 12% decline in exports for the year. We estimate corn sales will need to average roughly 22.1 million bushels/week for the rest of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s projection vs last year’s 28.5 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 671k tonnes (24.7 mil bu) were at the bottom end of market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, comparable to the previous week’s 26.9 million, but significantly below year ago same-week sales of 66.7 million bushels. New sales activity by China reflected sales of only 139k tonnes, with 662k tonnes being switched from previously-reported unknown. China now has 3.6 MMT in unshipped U.S. soybean purchases officially still on the books vs 4.6 MMT last year at this time and could be around 4.8 MMT vs 6.9 MMT last year when making assumptions about remaining sales to unknown. China has bought 24.9 MMT of U.S. soybeans so far this year vs 34.3 MMT a year ago at this time. Total commitments of 1.584 billion bushels are now down 25% from last year’s 2.105 billion, a 5-week high and compare to USDA’s 2.050 billion bushel export projection reflecting an estimated 9.5% decline in exports for the year. We estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 14.4 million bushels/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s export estimate vs last year’s 5.7 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 381k tonnes (14.0 mil bu) were at the top end of market expectations of 175-400k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 9.7 million, were the highest in three weeks and slightly better than last year’s same-week sales of 12.1 million bushels. Overall, though, they were still far from inspiring. The largest sales of the week went to Nigeria with 74k tonnes. Total commitments of 607 million bushels are down nearly 23% from last year’s 786 million vs the USDA’s 825 million bushel export projection reflecting an estimated 17% decline in exports for the year and are the 2nd lowest ever on record as of mid-January going back 40 years. The only other year with lower sales at this time was 2015/16, which ended up with annual exports of 778 million bushels. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 10.2 million bushels/week through the end of May to reach the USDA’s export projection vs 8.2 million/week average from this point forward last year.
U.S. soybean meal sales last week were a 14-week high and 2nd highest of the marketing year so far at 315k tonnes, coming in at the top end of market expectations of 100-300k tonnes, but still falling below last year’s same-week sales of 469k tonnes which were the 2020/21 marketing year high. The largest sales of the week were just 54k tonnes to Ecuador. Total commitments are now down 3% from last year vs USDA estimating exports to rise nearly 2% for the year with sales estimated needing to average roughly 153k tonnes/week to reach the USDA’s export projection vs last year’s 151k/week average from this point forward. U.S. soybean oil sales of 30.7k tonnes were the best in four weeks, above market expectations of 0-15k, but still below last year’s same-week sales of 52.3k tonnes. Accordingly, total commitments fell to a 15.5% deficit to last year, the largest in five weeks and mostly in line with USDA estimating exports to be down 17% for the year.
