-Corn sales minimal – below expectations
-Soybean sales minimal, but positive, and within expectations
-Wheat sales net cancellations
-SBM/SBO sales within expectations
U.S. corn sales, for the week ended 4/29/21, were minimal at 137k tonnes (5.4 million bushels), down from the previous three weeks’ average of 16.2 million bushels, below market expectations of 200-900k tonnes and just above marketing year low sales of 4.5 million bushels in late February. Sales activity to China included net positive sales for the week of 19k tonnes and while some may look to the net decline in sales to unknown of 559k as being negative, the majority of it (at least 339k) was switches to reported destinations, including 64k tonnes to China. China now has 11.9 MMT in unshipped purchases on the books (+1 MMT potentially with sales to unknown). However, it is clear the sharp run up in prices pushed many buyers to the sidelines, at least for the time being. However, total commitments currently on the books of 2.671 billion bushels already indicate the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel export projection is too low as official export data through March is 72 million bushels higher than that indicated by Export Sales data, with four months remaining in the marketing year. We look for USDA to raise their export projection by around 50 million bushels in next week’s WASDE report. New crop sales of 106k tonnes (4.2 mil bu) were at the bottom of expectations of 100-600k tonnes, with 2021/22 total commitments now at 110 million bushels vs 111 million in new crop sales at this time last year.
U.S. soybean sales last week of 165k tonnes (6.1 mil bu) were within market expectations for net cancellations of 100k to net positive sales of 200k tonnes, with any level of net positive sales being fundamentally supportive at this time. Weekly activity included the net reduction in sales to China of 10k tonnes, while sales to unknown were +136k tonnes. With total commitments at 2.252 billion bushels, taking into account official trade data running nearly 50 million bushels higher than Export Sales, we estimate soybean sales only need to average roughly 3.3 million bushels/week over the next four months to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Over the last eight weeks, soybean sales have been minimal, but still averaged 3.9 mil bu/week, supporting the USDA’s projection, which we expect to be left unchanged in next week’s update. New crop sales of 193k tonnes (7.1 mil bu) were within expectations of 100-600k tonnes, with 2021/22 total commitments now at 251 million bushels vs 45 million in new crop sales at this time last year.
U.S. wheat old crop sales last week were net cancellations of 96k tonnes (-3.5 mil bu), below market expectations 0-250k tonnes and followed last week’s sales of 8.5 million bushels, while sales have averaged 2.9 million bushels/week over the last five weeks. Net reductions in sales to unknown of around 94k tonnes were seen for the week. Total commitments of 937 million bushels are now down nearly 3% from last year vs USDA estimating exports to be up nearly 2% with only four full weeks left in the 2020/21 marketing year. We estimate old crop sales may still need to average around 7 million bushels/week this month to allow the USDA’s 985 million bushel projection to be met when taking into account the different with official trade data, but we look for USDA to leave their projection unchanged this month. New crop sales of 400k tonnes (14.7 mil bu) were within expectations of 100-500k tonnes with 2021/22 total commitments now at 110 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 78 million.
Soybean meal sales of 202k tonnes were within expectations of 50-300k tonnes and, again, more than met the roughly 114k tonnes in average weekly “needed” sales to reach the USDA’s export projection. Over the last seven weeks, SBM sales have averaged 142k tonnes/week. Total commitments are now up 1% from last year, in line with the USDA’s annual projection. Soybean oil sales of 6.1k tonnes were also within expectations of -10 to +25k tonnes, but were, again, well below the roughly 17k tonnes/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s export estimate. Over the last four weeks, SBO sales averaged only 3.4k tonnes/week, with total commitments now down 34% from last year vs USDA projecting annual exports down only 12%. We expect USDA to further lower their SBO export estimate next week.
