-Soybean sales within expectations
-Corn sales within expectations
-Wheat sales in lower end of expectations
-SBM sales below expectations/SBO sales as expected
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 3/12/20, were 632k tonnes (23.2 million bushels), within market expectations of 400k-1.0 MMT and were the best in five weeks, as each of the previous four weeks’ sales ranged from just 11.1-15.7 million bushels. The vast majority of this week’s sales fell under “unknown” with 416k tonnes in new sales. There was no reported activity by China, though. Total commitments of 1.286 billion bushels are down 15.5% from last year’s 1.522 billion, leaving sales needing to average roughly 22.0 million bushels/week through the end of August if the USDA’s 1.825 billion bushel export projection is to be met. Year ago sales from this point forward averaged 11.3 million. Needless to say, considerable old crop purchases by China will be needed if 2019/20 exports are to reach the USDA’s target.
U.S. corn sales last week of 905k tonnes (35.6 million bushels) were within market expectations of 600k-1.2 MMT, in line with last year’s same-week sales of 33.6 mil bu and easily met the roughly 21.9 million bushel/week average we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection. Corn sales were down, though, from the previous week’s very strong 57.9 million bushels. Sales this week included 258k tonnes to Mexico, 228k to Japan and 204k to South Korea. Total commitments of 1.142 billion bushels are still down 30.5% from last year’s 1.644 billion, with the 21.9 mil bu/week “needed” sales pace comparing to last year’s 13.4 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat sales of 338k tonnes (12.4 mil bu) were in the lower portion of market expectations of 200-600k tonnes and were the lowest in six weeks, but marginally beat last year’s same-week sales of 11.1 million bushels. More importantly, though, wheat sales were still above the roughly 7.2 mil bu/week average we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s 1.000 billion bushel export projection. While wheat sales have slowed seasonally of late, they have still averaged 15.1 mil bu/week over the last five weeks, easily supporting the USDA’s export projection for now. Total commitments of 881 million bushels are up 3.6% from last year’s 850 million.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 129k tonnes were below market expectations of 150-400k tonnes, but still met the roughly 111k tonnes/week “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s export target. However, this week’s sales were a 10-week low. Total commitments are down 6.5% from last year, but continually slowly gaining, and compare to the USDA’s expectation for exports to be down 2.6% on the year. Soybean oil sales were 18.9k tonnes, within expectations of 5-35k tonnes and easily beat the roughly 6.8k tonnes/week “needed” pace, but were the 2nd lowest of the last 10 weeks. SBO total commitments are now up nearly 45% from last year, while USDA is estimating annual exports to be up just 8.2% year-over-year.
