-Old crop soybean sales better than expected
-Corn sales uneventful – as expected, but less than “needed”
-New crop wheat sales as expected
-SBM/SBO sales as expected
See this post for details of this week’s USDA Export Sales data.
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 5/16/19, were actually fairly decent at 536k tonnes (19.7 million bushels), beating market expectations of 0-400k tonnes, rising from the previous week’s 13.5 million bushels and were the highest in 7 weeks and 2nd best of the last 10 weeks. Net sales to unknown destinations for the week were 366k tonnes, accounting for the bulk of activity, while 66k tonnes of previously-reported sales to unknown were switched to China this week. China still has 7.0 MMT of old crop soybeans on the books awaiting shipment vs just 1.87 MMT at this time last year. Total commitments of 1.682 billion bushels are down 17.1% from last year’s 2.028 billion at this time and are in line with the USDA’s projection of a 16.6% decline in exports on the year. Soybean sales will still need to average nearly 7 million bushels/week (190k tonnes) through the end of August to reach the USDA’s projection vs last year’s 9.0 million bushels/week, which featured an abnormally heavy sales program to non-Chinese destinations. New crop sales were minimal at just 5k tonnes vs expectations of 100-400k tonnes, with 2019/20 total commitments at just 52 million bushels vs new crop sales at this time last year of 204 million.
U.S. corn sales of 442k tonnes (17.4 million bushels) were in line with market expectations of 200-600k tonnes, but were down from the previous week’s 21.8 million bushels, were below last year’s same-week sales of 33.6 million and were the 2nd lowest of the last 10 weeks. More importantly, they were again below the roughly 23.0 million bushels (584k tonnes)/week we estimate sales need to average through the end of August in order for the USDA’s 2.300 billion bushel export projection to be met, the third consecutive week of sales below the “needed” pace, while averaging 16.8 million bushels/week during the period. Total commitments of 1.864 billion bushels are down nearly 12% from last year’s 2.105 billion at this time, while the USDA is estimating 2018/19 exports down just 5.7% on the year. The current “needed” sales pace reflects what would be a 24% increase from last year’s sales from this point forward of 18.6 million bushels/week. New crop sales were 184k tonnes, in line with expectations of 50-450k tonnes and puts 2019/20 total commitments at 99 million bushels, unchanged from new crop sales last year at this time.
Old crop wheat sales were minimal, as would be expected with only two weeks left in the marketing year, at 48k tonnes (1.8 million bushels) vs market expectations of net cancellations of 100k tonnes to net sales of 200k tonnes. Given the pick up in shipment activity of late, the USDA’s 2018/19 export projection appears likely to be met. New crop sales were 345k tonnes (12.7 million bushels), which were in line with market expectations of 100-500k tonnes, and put 2019/20 total commitments at 122 million bushels, which are well above last year’s new crop sales at this time last year of just 88 million, but are still at the very bottom of the range of new crop sales of the previous 7 years which ranged from 122-204 million bushels at this point.
Soybean meal sales were solid at 188k tonnes (50-300k tonnes expected) and continue to notably outpace the average “needed” sales pace of just 74k tonnes/week. Soybean meal sales continue to impress, having averaged 198k tonnes/week over the last 8 weeks and, while below last year’s 259k tonnes/week average during the same period, remain rather good and may continue to do so given the low protein content concerns of this year’s Argentine crop. Total commitments are roughly unchanged from last year vs USDA projecting a 7.3% decline in exports on the year, although the year-over-year sales relationship continues to slowly decline. Soybean oil sales of 9.1k tonnes were in line with expectations of 4-25k tonnes and were in line with the roughly 9k tonnes/week “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s export projection. Total commitments of 706k tonnes are now down 19% from last year, while the USDA is projection SBO exports down 12.1% on the year.
