#USDA Weekly #Grain Export Inspections Recap

-Wheat exports marketing year high – well above expectations
-Soybean exports marketing year low – slightly below range of expectations
-Corn exports notably larger than expected – highest in 28 weeks

U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 4/18/19, were very strong at 1.353 MMT (53.3 million bushels), coming in notably above the range of market ideas of 800l-1.1 MMT (31.5-43.3 million bushels), rising from the previous week’s 1.184 MMT (46.6 million bushels) and were the highest in 28 weeks going back to the first week of October. However, as corn exports were in the midst of a historically strong stretch a year ago, this week’s exports were still solidly below last year’s same-week exports of 1.738 MMT (68.4 million bushels). There is no denying the solid pick up in corn exports of late, having averaged 47.8 million bushels/week over the last four weeks vs the 34.1 million bushel/week average during the prior 4-week period 33.6 million/week during prior 8 weeks). The pick up in the shipment pace is helping to support prospects of reaching the USDA’s recently-lowered 2.300 billion bushel export projection as weekly exports will need to average nearly 38 million bushels/week through the end of August, which would be well below last year’s record 57.8 million bushel/week average from this point forward, and slightly below the average export pace of the last three most-recent years when there was not a South American crop problem of 2016/17, 2014/15 and 2013/14 with 40.6, 40.4 and 41.4 million bushels/week respectively. As Argentine exports accelerate over the coming weeks/months with their harvest progressing, and Brazilian exports expected to begin ramping up early than usual in June, every week of strong exports now will be needed to help in reaching the USDA’s current projection. Cumulative export inspections of 1.310 billion bushels are still up 11.6% from last year’s 1.174 billion at this time, but continue to see the year-over-year gain slip away each week.

U.S. soybean exports last week were just 382k tonnes (14.0 million bushels), declining from the previous week’s 476k tonnes (17.5 million bushels), falling below last year’s same-week exports of 472k tonnes (17.4 million bushels) and were below the range of market expectations of 400-800k tonnes (14.7-29.4 million bushels). Additionally, last week’s exports were a 2018/19 marketing year low and were sharply below the roughly 33-34 million bushels/week we estimate they will need to average through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 1.875 billion bushel export projection. Soybean exports over the last six weeks have averaged 25.6 million bushels, while not a single week’s exports have reached the current average “needed” pace since mid-February. We continue to hold the view that without additional old crop U.S. soybean purchases by China, the USDA’s export projection is likely to prove too high, and potentially solidly too high, in the end. Cumulative exports of 1.141 billion bushels are down nearly 28% from last year’s 1.574 billion bushels at this time, while the USDA is projecting a 12% decline in soybean exports on the year. This week’s activity included a mere 67k tonnes shipped to China.

U.S. wheat exports saw exactly the type of activity needed if the USDA’s 945 million bushel export projection holds any hope of being reached with a marketing year-high 811k tonnes (29.8 million bushels) shipped last week, rising sharply from the previous week’s 529k tonnes (17.5 million bushels), beating last year’s same-week exports of 647k tonnes (23.8 million bushels) and the average weekly “needed” exports of roughly 23.4 million bushels to hit the USDA’s current estimate. Given the generally weak pace of shipments of late, market expectations were just 350-600k tonnes (12.9-22.0 million bushels). Cumulative export inspections of 762 million bushels are now down 3.6% from last year vs the USDA projecting a 4.9% increase in exports from last year, with only six full weeks remaining in the 2018/19 marketing year.