-Soybean exports slightly above expectations
-Corn/wheat exports at top end of expectations
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 8/23/18, were solid at 902k tonnes (33.1 million bushels), coming in slightly above market expectations of 500-850k tonnes (18.4-31.2 million bushels), rising from the previous week’s 650k tonnes (23.9 million bushels) and were the highest since mid-May as remaining 2017/18 purchases get loaded before the end of the marketing year with only one full week left. This week’s data put cumulative export inspections at 2.039 billion bushels vs 2.099 billion at this time last year, but with official Census exports expected to be 50-55 million bushels larger than Inspections, effective exports as of this week’s data may be around 2.092 billion bushels vs the USDA’s 2.110 billion bushel export projection. Accordingly, exports around 20 million bushels next week may ensure the USDA’s export projection is met pending final Census Bureau data for July and August.
U.S. corn exports last week of 1.245 MMT (49.0 million bushels) were at the top end of market expectations of 900k-1.250 MMT (35.4-49.2 million bushels) and were up moderately from the previous week’s 1.097 MMT (43.2 million bushels). With only one full week remaining in the 2017/18 marketing year, cumulative export inspections of 2.220 billion bushels are marginally above last year’s 2.209 billion at this time. Based on our expectation for official Census Bureau exports to be 140 million bushels above Inspections when all is said and done, effective cumulative exports at this time may be closer to 2.360 billion bushels, leaving around 40 million bushels in exports “needed” in the last week to ensure the USDA’s 2.400 billion bushel export projection is met. Accordingly, we feel final exports may be with 10-20 million bushels of the USDA’s projection pending final Census export data for July and August, this is a bit of reduction from our previous ideas of export potentially being 30-40 million bushels larger than the USDA, as weekly shipments over the last three weeks have slowed a bit to an average of 47 million bushels/week vs the 58 million/week average experienced over the prior 8-week period.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 488k tonnes (17.9 million bushels) were also at the top end of market expectations of 300-500k tonnes (11.0-18.4 million bushels) and were unchanged from the previous week’s upwardly-revised 488k tonnes, putting cumulative 2018/19 exports at 178 million bushels, down 35% from last year’s 274 million at this time. Based on the USDA’s 1.025 billion bushel export projection, we estimate wheat exports will need to average roughly 20.4 million bushels/week over the 40 weeks still to come in 2018/19 vs last year’s 15.0 million/week average from this point forward.
