-Soybean exports higher than expected
-Corn exports within expectations
-Wheat exports at top end of expectations
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 10/01/20, were 1.667 MMT (61.3 million bushels), above market expectations of 1.05-1.55 MMT (38.6-57.0 million bushels), up from the previous week’s 47.6 million bushels and were the highest of the first five weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year, in seasonal fashion as exports ramp up strongly with new crop supplies becoming available. Year ago exports this week were 1.052 MMT (38.7 million bushels). The vast majority of this week’s shipments went to China with an impressive 1.223 MMT. Through the first full month of 2020/21, cumulative soybean exports of 243 million bushels are up 57% from last year’s 155 million bushels at this time last year, leaving weekly shipments needing to average roughly 38 million bushels/week for the remainder of the marketing year to reach the USDA’s 2.125 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 30.4 million/week average from this point forward last year.
U.S. corn exports last week of 864k tonnes (34.0 million bushels) were within market expectations of 650k-1.1 MMT (25.6-43.3 mil bu) and were up slightly from the previous week’s 827k tonnes (32.6 mil bu) and well above last year’s same-week exports of 473k tonnes (18.6 mil bu). This week’s activity included 347k tonnes shipped to China. Through the first full month of 2020/21, cumulative exports of 144 million bushels are up 81% from last year’s 80 million bushels at this time, leaving exports needing to average a rather healthy 43.4 million bushels/week over the next 11 months in order to reach the USDA’s 2.325 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 33.0 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 644k tonnes (23.7 mil bu) were at the top end of market expectations of 400-650k tonnes (14.7-23.9 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 587k tonnes (21.6 mil bu) and last year’s 479k tonnes (17.6 mil bu). Through the first four months of the 2020/21 marketing year, wheat exports have averaged a very respectable 20.4 million bushels/week vs last year’s same-period average of 18.4 million bushels/week. Cumulative exports of 363 million bushels are up 10% from last year’s 331 million, leaving exports needing to average roughly 16.6 million bushels/week through the end of next May to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection vs last year’s 17.2 million bushel/week average from this point forward.
