-Soybean exports see late surge – at top end of expectations
-Corn exports within expectations
-Wheat exports at upper end of expectations
U.S. soybean exports last week surged higher as China loaded old crop purchases as the end of 2019/20 draws near. Total exports for the week of 1.151 MMT (42.3 million bushels) were a 29-week high, going back to late January, and followed the previous week’s 924k tonnes (34.0 mil bu), with China loading 690k tonnes last week. Moreover, this week’s export were at the top end of market expectations of 600k-1.25 MMT (22.0-45.9 million bushels). The strong exports over the last few weeks brought cumulative Export Inspections to 1.552 billion bushels, down 5.0% from last year’s 1.633 billion, but with the USDA’s 1.650 billion bushel annual export projection reflecting an expected 5.8% year-over-year decline, old crop exports are slightly ahead of the USDA’s estimate with 1 1/2 weeks remaining in the marketing year. Official Census Bureau exports continue to run solidly above Inspections data, as we estimate 2019/20 exports will end up roughly 80 million bushels larger than reflected by Export Inspections. Based on this week’s Inspections data, unshipped old crop Chinese purchases still on the books are likely around 1.6 MMT. Reaching the USDA’s export projection has always been a matter to us of whether China would load the large outstanding old crop purchases or roll them forward to 2020/21. We apparently now have that answer. If similar exports are seen the next two weeks, 2019/20 total U.S. soybean exports would likely prove close to 1.670-1.675 billion bushels, 20-25 million above the USDA’s current estimate.
U.S. corn exports last week of 892k tonnes (35.1 million bushels) were within market expectations of 800k-1.15 MMT (31.5-45.3 mil bu), but slipped from the previous week’s 1.075 MMT (42.3 mil bu) and were a three week low. However, exports over the last three weeks averaged 42.7 million bushels/week, essentially right in line with our estimate (~40 million bushels) of what is needed in the final week and a half of the 2019/20 marketing year in order for the USDA’s 1.795 billion bushel export projection to be reached. Cumulative Export Inspections of 1.625 billion bushels are down 11.9% from last year’s 1.843 billion, while the USDA is estimating exports down 13.1% from last year. We estimate marketing year official exports will prove 115-120 million bushels larger than Export Inspections based on the difference with Census Bureau data so far through June. This week’s activity included 135k tonnes shipped to China, leaving their old crop outstanding purchases at around 450k tonnes.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 570k tonnes (20.9 million bushels) were at the top end of market expectations of 400-600k tonnes (14.7-22.0 million bushels), were up modestly from the previous week’s 495k tonnes (18.2 mil bu) and last year’s 519k tonnes (19.1 mil bu), while also being a 6-week high. Through the first 12 weeks of 2020/21, wheat exports averaged 19.4 million bushels/week vs last year’s 18.5 million/week during the same period and the roughly 17.4 million/week we estimate they will need to average over the remainder of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 975 million bushel export projection. Cumulative Export Inspections of 229 million bushels are up 3.1% from last year’s 222 million, while the USDA is estimating annual exports up 1.0% from last year. This week’s activity included 63k tonnes of wheat shipped to China.
