-Corn exports as expected, but less than “needed”
-Soybean exports as expected – support USDA export projection
-Wheat exports higher than expected – marketing year high
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 8/19/21, were 725k tonnes (28.5 million bushels), within market expectations of 500-950k tonnes (19.7-37.4 million bushels), but down from the previous week’s 782k tonnes (30.8 mil bu), well below last year’s same-week exports of 892k tonnes (35.1 mil bu) and, most importantly, considerably below the roughly 48 million bushels/week we estimate is needed over the final few weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.775 billion bushel export projection. Over the last three weeks, corn exports have been quite steady, ranging from 28.5-30.8 million bushels, each of which were well below the “needed” pace. Accordingly, we see old crop exports falling a bit short of the USDA’s current projection. This week’s activity included 341k tonnes shipped to China, leaving them with roughly 1.6 MMT (64 mil bu) in unshipped old crop purchases still on the books, now with only 12 days remaining in 2020/21. Accordingly, it appears China may end up rolling around 1 MMT of old crop purchases to the 2021/22 marketing year if their loading pace remains steady to end the year. Cumulative export inspections of 2.563 billion bushels compare to 1.633 billion a year ago, but keep in mind official Census Bureau exports (balance sheet exports) are running 100+ million bushels above Inspections data.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 214k tonnes (7.9 million bushels) were within expectations of 100-350k tonnes (3.7-12.9 mil bu) and compared to 278k tonnes (10.2 mil bu) the week prior and 1.223 MMT (44.9 mil bu) last year. China shipped 70k tonnes of soybeans last week, leaving roughly 670k tonnes of unshipped old crop purchases still on the books. With cumulative Export Inspections at 2.163 billion bushels and official Census Bureau exports running 90+ million bushels larger than Inspections through June, the USDA’s 2.250 billion bushel export projection likely has already been effectively hit, with 12 days remaining in the marketing year. Accordingly, we expect a modest increase being needed in the end following what appeared to be a premature lowering of the USDA’s projection in the August WASDE report.
U.S. wheat exports last week were a marketing year high at 658k tonnes (24.2 mil bu), coming in above expectations of 300-575k tonnes (11.0-21.1 mil bu) and were up from the previous week’s 561k tonnes (20.6 mil bu) and last year’s same-week exports of 570k tonnes (20.9 mil bu). Wheat exports have been decent of late, averaging 22.9 million bushels/week over the last three weeks vs 16.6 million/week over the first nine weeks of 2021/22 and 18.9 million/week during the same 3-week period last year. Accordingly, Cumulative export inspections of 208 million bushels have gained ground relative to last year, now down only 9% vs the 20%+ shortfall just six weeks earlier. We estimate wheat exports will need to average roughly 15.4 million bushels/week over the remainder of 2021/22 to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection vs last year’s 17.4 million/week average from this point forward.
