-Corn exports higher than expected – 6-week high
-Soybean exports as expected
-Wheat exports within expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 7/29/21, were 1.384 MMT (54.5 million bushels), above market expectations of 900k-1.2 MMT (35.4-47.2 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 1.184 MMT (46.6 mil bu), a 6-week high and, most importantly, met the roughly 53 million bushels/week “needed” pace in order to reach the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel export target for the first time in six weeks. This week’s activity reflected an increase in exports to China from recent levels to 840k tonnes and leaves roughly 2.8 MMT in unshipped purchases still on the books with four full weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year. Accordingly, China will need to load roughly 700k tonnes/week over the next month to fully ship their remaining old crop purchases. Cumulative export inspections of 2.473 billion bushels compare to 1.499 billion at this time last year. Keep in mind, official Census Bureau exports through May were running roughly 105 million bushels larger than Inspections data and likely to be closer to +140 million by the end of the marketing year.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 181k tonnes (6.7 mil bu) were within market expectations of 100-300k tonnes (3.7-11.0 mil bu), down a bit from the previous week’s 242k tonnes (8.9 mil bu), but continuing to run on pace to reach the USDA’s 2.270 billion bushel export projection, as we estimate shipments only need to average 3-4 million bushels/week through the end of August. Cumulative export inspections of 2.139 billion bushels compare to 1.447 billion last year, but similar to corn, official Census Bureau exports through May were running roughly 95 million bushels larger than Inspections data. This week’s activity included only 26k tonnes to China, leaving them with around 750k tonnes of old crop unshipped purchases still on the books. Unlike corn, though, we do not see those purchases needing to be shipped by the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s annual export target.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 388k tonnes (14.2 mil bu) were within expectations of 325-515k tonnes (11.9-18.9 mil bu), but down from the previous week’s 515k tonnes (18.9 mil bu), below last year’s same-week exports of 557k tonnes (20.5 mil bu) and were a 4-week low. While they were below the roughly 15.9 million bushels/week we estimate is needed from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, wheat exports over the first 9 weeks of 2021/22 have been keeping pace with their estimate, averaging 16.6 million bushels/week so far. Cumulative export inspections of 139 million bushels are down nearly 20% from last year’s 172 million, though, while the USDA is estimating marketing year total exports to be down nearly 12% year-over-year.
