-Corn exports at lower end of expectations – below “needed” pace
-Soybean exports within expectations – maintaining “needed” pace
-Wheat exports at upper end of weak expectations – remain lackluster
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 7/08/21, of 994k tonnes (39.1 million bushels) were at the lower end of market expectations of 950k-1.35 MMT (37.4-53.1 million bushels), down from the previous week’s 48.7 million bushels, below the roughly 51 million bushels/week we estimate is needed through the end of August to reach the USDA’s export projection and were the lowest in 25 weeks. While corn exports remain solid overall, there is no doubt they have slowed of late, with two of the last three week’s exports falling below the “needed” pace by a moderate degree and opening the door for the potential of 2020/21 exports falling a bit short of the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel projection – the first time we’ve felt that sentiment since last fall. Over the last three weeks, corn exports averaged 42.8 million bushels/week, roughly 6% below the current “needed” pace. This week’s exports included 478k tonnes to China, below the roughly 700k/week which is needed in order to to fully ship their outstanding purchases on the books before the end of the marketing year. Cumulative export inspections of 2.329 billion bushels are up 68% from last year, but keep in mind official Census Bureau exports were running 105 million bushels larger than Inspections data through May and likely to be closer to 140 million bushels in total for the 2020/21 marketing year.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 201k tonnes (7.4 mil bu) were right in line with market expectations of 100-300k tonnes (3.7-11.0 mil bu), nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 7.6 million bushels and, most importantly, maintaining the roughly 6.4 million bushel/week average pace we estimate is needed over the final 7 weeks of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Over the last 8 weeks, soybean exports have been very consistent, running between 4.1-8.8 million bushels/week, averaging 6.9 million/week for the period. Similar to corn, official Census Bureau exports through May were running 90 million bushels higher than Inspection data and needs to be kept in mind when comparing cumulative Export Inspections at 2.119 billion bushels to the USDA’s annual estimate.
U.S. wheat exports remain lackluster with 424k tonnes (15.6 mil bu) shipped last week and, while at the upper end of market expectations of only 240-450k tonnes (8.8-16.5 mil bu), they were again below the roughly 16.6 million/week average we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection for the 3rd consecutive week. Over the last three weeks, wheat exports averaged 13.2 million bushels/week vs 19.5 million/week during the same period last year. Cumulative export inspections of 85 million bushels are down 24% from last year’s 113 million through the first six weeks of 2021/22.
