-Corn exports within expectations – continue to meet “needed” pace
-Soybean exports within expectations – continue to meet “needed” pace
-Wheat exports weak – below “needed” pace
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 7/01/21, were 1.236 MMT (48.7 million bushels), within market expectations of 1.0-1.5 MMT (39.4-59.1 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 40.7 million bushels and in line with the roughly 49.5 million bushels/week we estimate weekly corn exports will need to average through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel export projection. Cumulative export inspections of 2.289 billion bushels are up 69% from last year’s 1.353 billion. Census Bureau official May export data was recently released putting the 2020/21 marketing year to date (Sept-May) difference between Inspections data exports and official exports at roughly 105 million bushels, leaving us to assume the marketing year total difference will be around 140 million bushels. This week’s activity included 405k tonnes shipped to China, leaving roughly 5.7 MMT in unshipped purchases by China still on the books. With 8 full weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year, China would need to ship roughly 700k tonnes of corn/week in order to fully ship their current purchases.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 206k tonnes (7.6 million bushels) were within market expectations of 90-300k tonnes (3.3-11.0 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 111k tonnes (4.1 mil bu) and again met the roughly 6.5 million bushels/week we estimate will be needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Over the last 7 weeks, while hardly exciting, soybean exports have averaged 6.9 million bushels/week, tracking right in line with the USDA’s export estimate. It was another week of essentially no soybeans being shipped to China, while they have around 770k tonnes of unshipped old crop purchases still on the books. Cumulative export inspections of 2.111 billion bushels are up 54% from last year’s 1.374 billion, while official Census Bureau exports were running 89 million bushels higher than Inspections through May data.
U.S. wheat exports were weak again at only 258k tonnes (9.5 million bushels), below market expectations of 275-500k tonnes (10.1-18.4 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 10.6 mil bu and were the lowest of the first five weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year so far. Cumulative export inspections of 66 million bushels are down 26% from last year’s 89 million, leaving exports needing to average roughly 16.6 million bushels/week this year vs last year’s 17.8 million/week average from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection. For the record, with the release of May Census Bureau trade data, 2020/21 total U.S. wheat/flour exports of 991 million bushels were slightly higher than USDA’s last balance sheet estimate of 985 million bushels.
