-Corn exports within expectations – continue to run above “needed” pace
-Soybean exports within expectations – maintain “needed” pace
-Wheat exports towards upper end of expectations – again larger than “needed” pace
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 5/06/21, were 1.707 MMT (67.2 million bushels), within market expectations of 1.1-2.2 MMT (43.3-86.6 million bushels) and again solidly above the roughly 46.2 million bushels/week we estimate they will need to run though the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel export projection. Despite the several modest old crop sales cancellations by China of late, we continue to expect 2020/21 U.S. corn exports to prove higher than the USDA’s current estimate, potentially solidly so, and anticipate USDA making at least a 50 million bushel upward revision in Wednesday’s WASDE report. Over the last 11 weeks, U.S. corn exports have averaged 75.3 million bushels (1.9 MMT), with minimum exports during the period being 61.3 million bushels. This week’s activity included “only” 342k tonnes shipped to China, down from the 500k+ tonnes/week regularly seen of late and should leave them with roughly 11 MMT (435 million bushels) in unshipped sales still officially on the books. Cumulative export inspections of 1.778 billion bushels compare to 991 million bushels at this time last year with 16 full weeks now remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 237k tonnes (8.7 million bushels) were within market expectations of 100-300k tonnes (3.7-11.0 million bushels), up from the previous week’s 5.3 million bushels and in line with average shipments over the last four weeks of 8.2 million bushels. Additionally, the recent shipment pace has been on track to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel annual export projection as we estimate weekly exports need to average roughly 8 million bushels through the end of August. Once again, shipment activity to China was extremely limited for the week at only 4k tonnes, while they still have roughly 725k tonnes of unshipped old crop sales still officially on the books. Cumulative export inspections of 2.047 billion bushels compare to 1.261 billion at this time last year. We look for USDA to leave their export estimate unchanged in this week’s report.
U.S. wheat exports were solid again at 546k tonnes (20.0 million bushels), towards the upper end of market expectations of 375-600 tonnes (13.8-22.0 million bushels), and continuing the recent rather respectable pace as each of the last six weeks’ exports have run from 17.0-23.4 million bushels, above the roughly 14.1 million/week average we estimate is needed over the final three full weeks of 2020/21 in order to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection. While old crop sales have dramatically slowed of late to levels potentially risking the USDA’s projection, the shipment pace remains quite robust, supporting their annual estimate, which we expect to be left unchanged in Wednesday’s WASDE report. Cumulative export inspections of 871 million bushels are up 1% from last year’s 861 million, while USDA is currently estimating marketing year total exports to be up 2% on the year.
