-Corn exports very strong again – 4-week high
-Soybean exports minimal/lower than expected – below “needed” pace
-Wheat exports within expectations – above “needed” pace again
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 4/29/21, were strong at 2.139 MMT (84.2 million bushels), a 4-week high and, again, solidly above the roughly 47.6 million bushels/week we estimate is needed through the end of August based on the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel export projection. Additionally, exports were at the very top end of market expectations of 1.10-2.15 MMT (43.3-84.6 million bushels). Over the last 10 weeks, corn exports have averaged 75.9 million bushel (1.93 MMT)/week, with minimum exports during the period of 61.4 million bushels. Exports to China for the week were quite strong at 771k tonnes, leaving unshipped sales still on the books of around 11.7 MMT (potentially ~13.0 MMT taking into account sales to unknown), which would require average weekly exports of roughly 650k tonnes (25-26 mil bu/week) through the end of the marketing year in order to fully ship. Cumulative export inspections of 1.708 billion bushels are up 82% from last year’s 936 million. We continue to expect 2020/21 U.S. corn exports to prove closer to 2.800 billion bushels than the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel projection.
U.S. soybean exports last week were a marketing year low at 143k tonnes (5.3 million bushels), below market expectations of 150-300k tonnes (5.5-11.0 million bushels), down from the previous week’s 284k tonnes (10.4 million bushels) and, more importantly, below the roughly 8.2 million bushels/week we estimate they will need to average through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. Shipments to China for the week were minimal at only 7.7k tonnes, while they still likely have in excess of 1.0 MMT in unshipped sales still on the books when taking into account sales to unknown. Cumulative export inspections of 2.038 billion bushels are up 64% from last year’s 1.241 billion, but the year-over-year gain has been declining precipitously given the slowdown in shipments of late.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 510k tonnes (18.7 million bushels) were within market expectations of 400-600k tonnes (14.7-22.0 mil bu), down modestly from the previous week’s 581k tonnes (21.4 mil bu), but again easily meeting the roughly 14.5 million bushels/week we estimate is needed over the final four full weeks of 2020/21 to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection. There has been nothing to complain about regarding the pace of wheat shipments of late, averaging 20.6 million bushels/week over the last 8 weeks and fully supporting the USDA’s current ideas. This week’s activity included 166k tonnes shipped to China, bringing their outstanding sales on the books down to around 400k tonnes. Cumulative export inspections of 850 million bushels are essentially unchanged from last year.