-Corn exports strong – within expectations
-Soybean exports within expectations
-Wheat exports better than expected
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 3/18/21, were strong at 1.962 MMT (77.2 million bushels), within market expectations of 1.6-2.2 MMT (63.0-86.6 million bushels), but down from the previous week’s marketing year high of 89.5 million bushels. Over the last four weeks, corn exports have averaged a very impressive 78.3 million bushels/week vs the roughly 51.1 million/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushel export projection. We continue to feel 2020/21 U.S. corn exports are likely to exceed the USDA’s projection by at least 100 million bushels. This week’s activity included 418k tonnes shipped to China. Cumulative export inspections of 1.259 billion bushels are up 89% from last year’s 665 million.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 489k tonnes (18.0 million bushels) were within market expectations of 300-600k tonnes (11.0-22.0 million bushels) and down slightly from the previous week’s 20.2 million bushels, once again, setting a new marketing year low, as would be expected as the seasonal decline continues. Year ago exports this week were 21.6 million bushels. Interestingly, shipments to China last week were nearly non-existent at only 8k tonnes. Based on the USDA’s 2.250 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean exports will need to average roughly 8.1 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year, a target we feel is still in play as export shipments and sales continue to decline. Obviously a very close on export activity will be needed, but we do not feel exceeding the USDA’s estimate is definitive at this time. Cumulative export inspections of 1.971 billion bushels are up 73% from last year’s 1.143 billion with 23 weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year.
U.S. wheat exports were 648k tonnes (23.8 million bushels) last week, above market expectations of 325-575k tonnes (11.9-21.1 million bushels), little-changed from the previous week’s 26.2 million bushels and again above the roughly 17.4 million bushels/week needed in order for 2020/21 exports to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection. This week’s activity included 70k tonnes shipped to China. After a rather slow Jan-Feb, wheat exports have clearly picked up, exceeding the current average “needed” pace in each of the last three weeks. Cumulative export inspections of 733 million bushels are nearly unchanged from last year’s 738 million with 10 full weeks remaining in the year.
