-Soybean exports within expectations
-Corn exports above expectations
-Wheat exports above expectations
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 3/11/21, of 519k tonnes (19.1 million bushels) were within market expectations of 350-650k tonnes (12.9-23.9 million bushels), but continue to seasonally decline, slipping from the previous week’s 595k tonnes (21.9 mil bu) and were another new marketing year low. While exports are still running solidly above the roughly 8.6 million bushels/week “needed” based on the USDA’s 2.250 billion bushel export projection, they don’t simply shut off once the South American export program accelerates so a continual decline in exports should be expected over the coming months. To be certain, exports will need to slow to historically low levels, but as long as sales activity continues to slow as well, it’s simply going to be a matter of monitoring the pace of the slowdown during the 2nd half of the marketing year to gauge whether exports are likely to exceed the USDA’s target or not. At this point, we feel it is too early to conclude exports are likely to surpass the USDA’s estimate with certainty. Cumulative export inspections of 1.952 billion bushels are up 74% from last year’s 1.121 billion. This week’s activity included 159k tonnes shipped to China, leaving them with roughly 1.0 MMT in official unshipped sales on the books and possibly around 2.0 MMT based on sales to unknown which may be Chinese, as well.
U.S. corn exports last week were strong at 2.204 MMT (86.8 million bushels), a marketing year high, up from the previous week’s 1.673 MMT (65.9 million bushels) and more than double last year’s same-week exports of 985k tonnes (38.8 mil bu). Shipments to China for the week were 357k tonnes, leaving an estimated 13+ MMT in unshipped sales still on the books. Based on the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushels, we estimate corn exports will need to average roughly 52 million bushels/week through the end of August and have averaged 77.7 million bushels/week over the last three weeks. Cumulative export inspections of 1.179 billion bushels are up 79% from last year’s 631 million, while last year’s corn exports from this point forward averaged 41.4 million bushels/week for comparison. We continue to feel 2020/21 exports are likely to exceed the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushel export projection by at least 100 million bushels when all is said and done.
U.S. wheat exports finally showed signs of life last week, rising to 683k tonnes (25.1 million bushels) from 485k tonnes (17.8 mil bu) the week prior and solidly above the 14.3 million bushel/week average over the prior 5-week period. Moreover, wheat exports exceeded the current average “needed” pace of 18.1 million bushels/week for the first time in 7 weeks and only the 2nd time in the last 14 weeks. This week’s activity included 67k tonnes to China. Cumulative export inspections of 708 million bushels are down 2% from last year’s 725 million vs USDA estimating 2020/21 exports up 2% on the year so a decent pace will need to be maintained over the final 11 weeks of the year if the USDA’s projection is to be met. A late-season uptick in shipments is fairly common as old crop purchases get shipped before the end of the year so we’re still comfortable with the USDA’s projection for the time being.
