-Soybean exports lower than expected
-Corn exports at upper end of expectations
-Wheat exports within expectations
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 2/11/21, were 810k tonnes (29.7 million bushels), below market expectations of 950k-1.8 MMT (34.9-66.1 million bushels), down sharply from the previous week’s 1.904 MMT (70.0 mil bu), below last year’s same-week exports of 1.005 MMT (36.9 million bushels) and easily the lowest of the 2020/21 marketing year so far. The previous weekly low exports were 47.6 million bushels. Over the previous four weeks, soybean exports averaged 75.2 million bushels/week. While a single week is not a certain indication, it is likely this week’s exports represent the start to the much-needed sharp seasonal decline in soybean exports with Brazilian exports finally ramping up. Shipments to China this week were only 405k tonnes, reducing their “known” unshipped purchases to around 1.9 MMT, but possibly closer to 3.5 MMT when taking into account likely purchases still reflected as “unknown.” Cumulative export inspections of 1.840 billion bushels compare to 1.038 billion last year, leaving weekly exports needing to average roughly 11.3 million bushels/week through the end of August to reach the USDA’s 2.250 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 19.8 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn exports last week of 1.322 MMT (52.1 million bushels) were at the upper end of market expectations of 1.0-1.4 MMT (39.4-55.1 mil bu), down modestly from the previous week’s 1.585 MMT (62.4 mil bu), but in line with the export pace over the previous five weeks which averaged 49.9 million bushels/week. More importantly, the pick up in corn exports of late has been mostly in line with the roughly 55.5 million bushels/week which will be needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.600 billion bushel export projection. However, we continue to anticipate corn exports running even stronger to eventually reach at least 2.800 billion bushels if China fully ships their purchases of US. corn by the end of the marketing year. This week’s activity included only 69k tonnes shipped to China, though. Cumulative export inspections of 897 million bushels compare to 479 million at this time last year.
U.S. wheat exports of 393k tonnes (14.4 million bushel) were within market expectations of 300-600k tonnes (11.0-22.0 mil bu), but down from the previous week’s 453k tonnes (16.6 mil bu), below the roughly 19.4 million bushel/week “needed” pace to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection and were the lowest in four weeks. Cumulative exports of 640 million bushels are down a minor 2% from last year’s 651 million, while the USDA annual estimate reflects an expected 2% increase from last year. Last year, a decent increase in wheat exports was seen from this point forward, with a repeat appearing necessary in order to reach the USDA’s annual target.
