-Soybean exports within expectations
-Corn exports within expectations
-Wheat exports within expectations
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 1/28/21, of 1.792 MMT (65.9 million bushels) were within market expectations of 1.10-2.15 MMT (40.4-79.0 million bushels), but continue to run at an extremely impressive overall pace, having averaged 73.7 million bushels/week over the last four weeks vs 44.3 million/week during the same period last year and 79.2 million/week over the last eight weeks (42.6 million/week last year). With outstanding (unshipped) sales on the books as of last week’s Export Sales report of 451 million bushels being considerably above last year’s 228 million at this time, continued strong exports should be expected at least for the next 6-8 weeks until the delayed Brazilian harvest finally begins making its way to ports. This week’s activity included 1.129 MMT shipped to China. Cumulative Export Inspections of 1.736 billion bushels are up 77% from last year’s 979 million, leaving Feb-Aug exports needing to average roughly 13.7 million bushels/week vs last year’s 20.4 million/week average from this point forward in order to reach the USDA’s 2.230 billion bushel export projection.
U.S. corn exports last week of 1.105 MMT (43.5 million bushels) were within market expectations of 1.00-1.35 MMT (39.4-53.1 million bushels) and compared to the previous week’s 1.403 MMT (55.2 million bushels) and last year’s same-week exports of 562k tonnes (22.1 mil bu). Corn exports have been solid of late, averaging 46.6 million bushels/week over the last four weeks vs 20.9 million/week during the same period last year, but the best is yet to come as the 2nd half 2020/21 export program looks to run at an exceptionally strong pace. Over the last week, China’s purchases of more than 5.8 MMT (230 million bushels) should prompt a considerable increase in the USDA’s 2.550 billion bushel export projection in the upcoming February 9 WASDE report. Even based on the USDA’s current export estimate, Feb-Aug exports would need to average roughly 53.7 million bushels/week vs last year’s 40.0 million/week average from this point forward, but a likely 200 million bushel increase in the USDA’s annual projection to 2.750 billion bushels would require exports averaging roughly 60 million bushels/week through the end of the marketing year. Cumulative export inspections of 782 million bushels are currently up 84% from last year’s 425 million.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 397k tonnes (14.6 mil bu) were within market expectations of 350-550k tonnes (12.9-20.2 mil bu), but down from the previous week’s 572k tonnes (21.0 mil bu) and last year’s 436k tonnes (16.0 mil bu). More importantly, wheat exports need to start picking up sooner than later in order to reach the USDA’s export projection of 985 million bushels, which we remain hopeful of happening given the elevated levels of unshipped sales on the books relative to last year, but now with only four months remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year. Based on cumulative exports of 608 million bushels vs 612 million last year, we estimate wheat exports will need to average roughly 19.3 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 17.9 million/week average and the 14.1 million/week average posted over the last eight weeks.
