-Soybean exports within expectations
-Corn exports at top end of expectations
-Wheat exports at bottom of expectations
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 01/07/21, were 1.779 MMT (65.4 million bushels), within market expectations of 1.0-2.0 MMT (36.7-73.5 million bushels), nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 1.761 MMT (64.7 million bushels) and significantly above last year’s same-week exports of 1.152 MMT (42.3 mil bu). This week’s activity included 1.037 MMT to China, which would reduce outstanding (unshipped) export sales on the books specifically attributed to China to around 4.6 MMT, and possibly/likely around 7.1 MMT making the assumption roughly half of sales to “unknown” are Chinese. Cumulative export inspections of 1.500 billion bushels are up 78% from last year’s 844 million bushels, leaving exports needing to average roughly 18.6 million bushels/week through the end of 2020/21 in order to reach the USDA’s 2.200 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 22.6 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn exports last week were 1.131 MMT (44.5 million bushels), at the top end of market expectations of 800k-1.2 MMT (31.5-47.2 million bushels), little-changed from the previous week’s 1.089 MT (42.9 mil bu), while continuing to run strongly above last year’s pace with 484k tonnes (19.0 mil bu) shipped this week. Activity this week included 489k tonnes shipped to China, leaving an estimated 6.0 MMT in unshipped reported sales to China (possibly ~9 MMT estimating unknown sales being Chinese). Cumulative export inspections of 638 million bushels are up 79% from last year’s 358 million, leaving exports needing to average roughly 56.2 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.650 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 38.4 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 279k tonnes (10.3 mil bu) were at the bottom of market expectations of 250-450k tonnes (9.2-16.5 mil bu) and down notably from the previous week’s 476k tonnes (17.5 mil bu) and last year’s same-week exports of 562k tonnes (20.6 mil bu). Cumulative export inspections of 562 million bushels are now down 1% from last year’s 568 million, leaving exports needing to average roughly 18.7 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushels vs last year’s 17.4 million/week average from this point forward. The minor shortfall in exports relative to last year and the “needed” pace are not concerns at this point relative to reaching the USDA’s export projection as outstanding (unshipped) export sales on the books of 6.5 MMT (237 mil bu) are considerably larger than last year’s 4.4 MMT (163 mil bu) at this time.
