-Corn exports at bottom of expectations, but still above “needed” pace
-Soybean exports within expectations
-Wheat exports above expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 4/15/21, were 1.525 MMT (60.0 million bushels), towards the bottom end of market expectations of 1.4-2.1 MMT (55.1-82.7 million bushel) and down modestly from the previous week’s 1.728 MMT (68.0 mil bu), but still significantly larger than last year’s same-week exports of 731k tonnes (28.8 mil bu) and, most importantly, better than the roughly 51.0 million bushels/week we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s 2.675 billion bushel export projection. Additionally, we continue to feel 2020/21 corn exports could prove closer to 2.800 billion bushels in the end and, even though last week’s exports were an 8-week low, they were still even better than the roughly 57.4 million bushels/week we estimate is needed to reach that target. While there has been ongoing talk/comments about the “slower than expected” loading of corn to China, the fact remains U.S. corn exports have averaged 74.5 million bushels (1.9 MMT)/week over the last eight weeks. This week’s activity included 560k tonnes shipped to China, leaving their official unshipped purchases on the books at roughly 13.1 MMT and could be closer to 14.5 MMT when taking into account sales to unknown. Cumulative export inspections of 1.545 billion bushels are up 85% from last year’s 837 million bushels with 19 full weeks remaining in the 2020/21 marketing year.
U.s. soybean exports last week of 184k tonnes (6.8 million bushels) were within market expectations of 100-400k tonnes (3.7-14.7 mil bu), but were down from the previous week’s 337k tonnes (12.4 mil bu), were well below last year’s 552k tonnes (20.3 mil bu) and were easily a new marketing year low as soybean exports continue to seasonally decline. However, last week’s exports were the first to fall below the average “needed” pace of roughly 8.3 million bushels/week in order to reach the USDA’s 2.280 billion bushel export projection. This week’s activity included only a minor 9k tonnes shipped to China, even though they have roughly 800k tonnes in old crop purchases still on the books and could be closer to 1.5 MMT taking into account sales to unknown. Cumulative export inspections of 2.021 billion bushels are up 68% from last year’s 1.207 billion.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 614k tonnes (22.5 mil bu) were above market expectations of 250-550k tonnes (9.2-20.2 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 461k tonnes (17.0 mil bu) and, most importantly, easily above the roughly 15-16 million bushels/week we estimate is needed over the final six weeks of 2020/21 to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export target. In fact, over the last six weeks, wheat exports have averaged 20.7 million bushels/week, leaving no reason to doubt the USDA’s projection at this time. Cumulative export inspections of 809 million bushels are unchanged from last year vs USDA estimating this year’s exports to be up 2% on the year. Through February official Census Bureau trade data, though, wheat exports were roughly 37 million bushels larger than Inspections data, along with estimated annual wheat flour/product exports of the equivalent of roughly 20 million bushels.
