-Soybean exports within expectations, but still below USDA estimate “needed” pace
-Corn exports at extreme bottom of market expectations – below “needed” pace
-Wheat exports within expectations
U.S. soybean exports, for the week ended 7/30/20, were 552k tonnes (20.3 million bushels), within the range of market ideas of 375-700k tonnes (13.8-25.7 million bushels) and were the highest in three weeks, but still considerably below the roughly 30 million bushels/week we estimate is needed over the final four full weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 1.650 billion bushel export projection. Each of the last 12 weeks’ exports have fallen short of the respective “needed” pace at the time. The Census Bureau’s official export data for June will be released on Wednesday, which will help narrow the uncertainty of old crop exports as the end of the marketing year nears. Once again, exports to China were extremely limited with a mere 72k tonnes shipped in the latest week despite having at least 2.9 MMT in old crop purchases still on the books. If soybean exports average around 20 million bushels/week during August, 2019/20 total exports would likely fall 35-40 million bushels short of the USDA’s current projection. Cumulative export inspections of 1.447 billion bushels are currently down 4.9% from last year and falling, while the USDA is projection a 5.8% year-over-year decline in exports.
U.S. corn exports last week were 716k tonnes (28.2 mil bu), at the extreme bottom of market expectations of 700k-1.150 MMT (27.6-45.3 mil bu) and were down from the previous week’s 841k tonnes (33.1 mil bu), while falling to a 15-week low. After a rather impressive stretch from late April through mid-July, in which exports averaged 45.7 million bushels/week, shipments have slowed notably in recent weeks, once again putting the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export estimate in jeopardy. Wednesday’s release of official June export data will be rather important for corn as May and April exports were 14.5 million and 20.6 million bushels, respectively, larger than Inspections data, with the Sept-May total difference at 89 million bushels. As it currently stands, we estimate corn exports would need to average roughly 39 million bushels/week over the next four weeks in order to reach the USDA’s projection, a level only reached once in the last four weeks. China also has around 1.3 MMT in old crop corn purchases remaining on the books yet shipped none last week. Cumulative export inspections of 1.494 billion bushels are down nearly 16% from last year, while the USDA is estimating exports down 14.1% from 2018/19.
U.S. wheat exports last week were 500k tonnes (18.4 mil bu), within but towards the lower end of market expectations of 450-675k tonnes (16.5-24.8 mil bu), and in line with average exports of 19.4 million bushels/week over the first 9 weeks of the 2020/21 marketing year. The early pace of wheat exports has supported the USDA’s 950 million bushel export projection as we estimate August-May exports will need to average roughly 17 million bushels/week vs last year’s 17.5 million/week average from this point forward. Cumulative export inspections of 170 million bushels are up 9% from last year’s 156 million in the early-goings of the year.
