-Corn exports within expectations – continue to run below “needed” pace
-Soybean exports within expectations – still running a bit better than “needed” pace
-Wheat exports within expectations – maintaining “needed” pace
U.S. corn exports, for week ended 7/22/21, were 1.037 MMT (40.8 million bushels), within market expectations of 700k-1.2 MMT (27.6-47.2 mil bu), comparable to the previous week’s 1.077 MMT (42.4 mil bu) and above year ago same-week exports of 841k tonnes (33.1 mil bu) but, most importantly, again below the roughly 54 million bushels/week we estimate is needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.850 billion bushel export projection. In fact, each of the last five week’s exports were below the current “needed” pace, averaging 42.4 million bushels during the period, nearly 22% below our estimate of the pace necessary to reach the USDA’s estimate. Shipments to China last week were 490k tonnes, leaving them with roughly 3.9 MMT (155 mil bu) in outstanding purchases still on the books for 2020/21 with only five full weeks remaining in the marketing year. Accordingly, they would need to ship roughly 700-750k tonnes/week in order to ship the major of old crop purchases prior to the end of 2020/21, which is likely to be required if the USDA’s current projection is to be met, but have been falling short of the pace in recent weeks. Cumulative export inspections of 2.412 billion bushels compares to 1.471 billion last year, but keep in mind official Census Bureau exports through May were running more than 100 million bushels larger than Inspections data.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 242k tonnes (8.9 million bushels) were within market expectations of 90-300k tonnes (3.3-11.0 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 144k tonnes (5.3 million bushels) and again above the roughly 4.2 million bushels/week we estimate is needed over the final five weeks of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.270 billion bushel export projection. In fact, soybean exports averaged 7.3 million bushels/week over the last four weeks (6.8 mil/week last eight weeks), clearly supporting the USDA’s projection as we head into the final month of 2020/21. Cumulative export inspections of 2.133 billion bushels remain up 50% from last year’s 1.427 billion, with official Census Bureau exports through May running nearly 90 million bushels higher than indicated by Inspections.
U.S. wheat exports last week were 478k tonnes (17.6 million bushels), comparable to the previous week’s 533k tonnes (19.6 mil bu), within market expectations of 300-600k tonnes (11.0-22.0 mil bu) and meeting the roughly 16 million bushel/week average we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel 2021/22 export projection. Through the first eight weeks of the marketing year, wheat exports have averaged 16.7 million bushels/week, solidly below last year’s 20.2 million during the same period, but keeping pace with the USDA’s annual projection so far. Cumulative export inspections of 123 million bushels are currently down 19% from last year’s 152 million bushels.
