-Corn exports at top end of expectations
-Soybean exports at top end of expectations, but below “needed” pace
-Wheat exports as expected, but below “needed” pace
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 4/23/20, were 1.078 MMT (42.4 million bushels), recovering nicely from the previous week’s poor exports of 698k tonnes (27.5 million bushels) and meeting the average needed pace of 40.2 million bushels/week we estimate is necessary in order to reach the USDA’s 1.725 billion bushel export projection, with four of the last five weeks having done so. Year ago exports this week were strong at 1.366 MMT (53.8 million bushels). Cumulative exports of 878 million bushels are still down 36% from last year’s 1.364 billion as they continue attempting to claw back to the USDA’s 16.5% year-over-year decline projection. While last year’s corn exports from this point forward averaged only 27.3 million bushels/week, exports during the five years from 2013/14-2017/18 averaged 45.7 million bushels/week through the end of August, with 2014/15’s 39.6 million/week being the lowest, so the current “needed” pace looks very realistic in that context.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 556k tonnes (20.4 million bushels) were little-changed from the previous week’s 551k tonnes (20.3 million bushels) and last year’s same-week exports of 508k tonnes (18.7 mil bu). However, they were again below the roughly 26.2 million bushels/week we estimate is needed in order to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel export projection, now reflecting the 10th consecutive week in which exports failed to reach the “needed” pace. For the week, 73k tonnes of soybeans were shipped to China. Cumulative exports of 1.230 billion bushels are still up 6.1% from last year’s 1.159 billion, while the USDA is estimating 2019/20 exports 1.5% higher than last year. Soybean exports from this point forward last year averaged 28.9 million bushels/week.
U.S. wheat exports last week were 501k tonnes (18.4 million bushels), nearly identical to the previous week’s 506k tonnes (18.6 mil bu), but falling below last year’s 646k tonnes (23.7 mil bu) and, more importantly, the roughly 25.5 million bushel/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s 985 million bushel export projection with only five full weeks remaining in the 2019/20 marketing year. Only one of the last eight week’s exports reached the “needed” pace. Wheat exports last year finished strong, averaging 24.8 million bushels/weeks over the last five weeks so a similar push will be needed once again to prevent exports falling short of the USDA’s projection. Cumulative export inspections of 867 million bushels are up 5.1% from last year’s 787 million, in line with the USDA’s year-over-year projected gain, but have been slipping relative to last year having been up more than 10% as recently as late February.
