-Winter wheat conditions 53% good/excellent vs 53% expected (43-57% range of ideas), 62% last year
-HRW conditions below the last two years, but historically average
-SRW conditions 3rd best of last 8 years
-Corn planting 2% complete vs 3% expected, 2% last year, 2% average
-Spring wheat planting 3% complete vs 2% expected, 3% last year, 2% average
-Cotton planting 6% complete vs 7% last year, 5% average
-Oats 23% planted vs 28% average, sorghum 14% planted vs 14% average
NOTE: Technical issues at USDA delayed the release of today’s Crop Progress report until 4:00 PM CT.
With today’s USDA release of the first Crop Progress report of 2021, this begins our weekly updates of U.S. crop planting, condition and harvest updates throughout the growing season.
Overall U.S. winter wheat crop conditions were right in line with market expectations at 53% good/excellent, but solidly below last year’s early April 62% g/e rating. Generally speaking, conditions are considered historically average, falling between the most-recent 5-year and 10-year ratings to start the spring growing season. State-level conditions are summarized in the map below. Our by-class condition analysis shows HRW conditions below the last two years’ early April ratings, but historically average. SRW conditions are slightly below last year’s, but the 3rd highest of the last eight years. Overall white winter wheat conditions are off to a difficult start, easily the lowest in six years. We calculate estimated by-class conditions each week using an acreage-weighted system applied to each state and then summed to arrive at a nationwide condition index. The condition index charts below, and those as the season progresses for other crops, as well, reflect our calculated condition index, which allows for an apples-to-apples comparison of conditions across past years at the same point of the growing season rather than using a simple good/excellent (or similar) such comparison, which can be misleading or not as accurate of a reflection of conditions historically.
