-Soybean sales solid – slightly above range of ideas
-Corn sales respectable – at upper end of expectations
-Wheat sales respectable – at upper end of expectations
-SBM sales within expectations, SBO sales somewhat better than expected
U.S. soybean sales, for the week ended 11/14/19, were solid at 1.517 MMT (55.7 million bushels), up from the previous week’s 43.5 million and above the range of market ideas of 800k-1.4 MMT, but only slightly above the average sales over the first 11 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year of 51.6 million bushels/week. Since the start of 2019/20, export sales of soybeans have totaled 524 million bushels (14.26 MMT) vs just 206 million bushels (5.6 MMT) during the same period last year as China returned to the market. Total commitments of 872 million bushels are now up 5% from last year’s 829 million, with China accounting for 8.48 MMT (312 mil bu) of the total vs last year’s minimal 580k tonnes (21 mil bu) in mid-November. This week’s activity included 440k tonnes in new net sales to China, with the next largest sales of 198k tonnes going to Germany. We estimate soybean sales will need to average roughly 22.4 million bushels/week over the remainder of the marketing year for exports to reach the USDA’s 1.775 billion bushel target vs last year’s 23.5 million bushels/week average from this point forward.
U.S. corn sales last week were respectable at 788k tonnes (31.0 million bushels), at the upper end of market expectations of 400-900k tonnes, up from the previous week’s 22.9 million bushels and were the 2nd largest of the first 11 weeks of 2019/20 so far. Additionally, this was just the 2nd week of the marketing year in which corn sales met/exceeded the average “needed” sales pace. The largest sales of the week went to Mexico with 349k tonnes. Unlike soybeans, since the start of 2019/20, corn sales have totaled just 239 million bushels (6.1 MMT) vs 360 million bushels (9.1 MMT) during the same period last year. Total commitments of 522 million bushels remain down 45% from last year’s 957 million at this time, leaving sales needing to average roughly 31.1 million bushels/week over the rest of the marketing year vs last year’s 24.6 million/week average from this point forward if the USDA’s 1.850 billion bushel export projection is to be met. At some point, Brazil’s incredibly strong export program will largely come to an end, benefiting U.S. export prospects, but when and how much damage will have already be done are the questions.
U.S. wheat sales last week of 438k tonnes (16.1 mil bu) were at the upper end of market expectations of 200-500k tonnes, up from the previous week’s poor sales of just 8.7k tonnes, better than last year’s same-week sales of 12.1 mil bu and were the 3rd highest of the last 10 weeks. Total commitments of 574 million bushels are up 8% from last year’s 533 million, as the year-over-year gain in commitments has leveled out in recent weeks after steadily declining since the start of the marketing year in June. We estimate wheat sales will need to average roughly 12.7 million bushels/week through next May in order for the USDA 950 million bushel export projection to be reached vs last year;s 14.9 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean meal sales of 196k tonnes were within market expectations of 100-450k tonnes and easily met the roughly 158k tonnes/week average “needed” sales pace to reach the USDA’s 13.35 million ton export projection. Total commitments of 4.710 MMT are down 14% from last year’s 5.490 MMT at this time vs USDA estimating SBM export to decline just 1.5% on the year. Accordingly, sales are going to have to run modestly stronger than year ago levels if the USDA’s estimate is to be met. Soybean oil sales of 39k tonnes were above market expectations of 5-25k tonnes (24k tonnes to South Korea) and were the best of the first 7 weeks of the 2019/20 marketing year. However, they were still just below last year’s same-week marketing year-high sales of 40.1k tonnes. Total commitments of 307k tonnes are up 1.5% from last year’s 302k, while the USDA is estimating 2019/20 SBO exports to decline 12% from last year.
