-USDA reports soybeans/wheat (yes, wheat) sales to China
-Chinese pig herd ideas continue to decline
-South Korea reports new ASF cases
-Soybean sales large, but “old news”
-Widespread frost/freeze finally shows potential for Oct 11
 USDA reported the sale of 252k tonnes of soybeans to China for 2019/20 delivery this morning, bringing total reported additional sales since this week’s Export Sales reporting period (see comments below) to 875k tonnes. In an interesting one, USDA also reported 130k tonnes of white wheat sales to China for 2019/20, as well. China did have 60k tonnes of HRS wheat already on the books prior to today’s announcement. While the U.S. exported only 42k tonnes of wheat to China in 2018/19, exports ranged from 600k-1.6 MMT from 2015/16-2017/18.
 Ukraine government and grain trade officials are expected to sign the annual grain export memorandum today, which typically establishes an agreed-upon level of wheat exports for the marketing year which the government agrees to allow without changing export rules during the year. The government initially proposed a 19.0 MMT wheat export allowance, while grain traders subsequently requested a 20.0 MMT limit be set. However, a Ukrainian deputy trade/ag minister said this year’s memorandum will not include a specific export figure, and will instead institute a process of monthly monitoring of market conditions to evaluate domestic supply and export allowances going forward. USDA last estimated this year’s Ukraine wheat exports at 19.5 MMT vs 16.0 MMT last year.
ï‚· Given increasing difficulties with processing payments due to U.S. economic sanctions, roughly 1.0 MMT of grain, mostly corn and soybeans from South America, are anchored outside Iranian ports, unable to offload as payment has not yet been completed. Some vessels have been waiting to offload for more than a month. While humanitarian aid (food, medicine, etc.) is exempt from the financial sanctions, there has reportedly been a considerable decline in the number of banks willing to deal with the entire Iranian financial situation, creating significant logistical issues in getting payments made for incoming grain vessels.
 Rabobank estimates China’s pig herd has now declined by 50% since the start of 2019 and is expected to see additional losses to 55% of the pre-year total by the end of 2019. They see Chinese total pork production declining by 25% in 2019, with another 10-15% decline expected in 2020. They estimate total animal feed consumption will decline by 17% in 2019, but is expected to rise 8% in 2020 as production of other protein sources (chicken, beef, etc.) are increased, as well as attempts to begin rebuilding hog numbers are made. Rabobank estimates Vietnam’s pig herd will decline by 25% by the end of 2019, having already declined by 18% since February.
ï‚· South Korea confirmed two more cases of African swine fever, bringing the total number to 13 since the initial case reported in mid-September. A total of 115k head have been culled in precautionary measures so far.
ï‚· Please see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37552 for details on the USDA Export Sales report.
ï‚· U.S. soybean sales were strong at 2.076 MMT (76.3 million bushels) as recent Chinese purchases make their way into the Export Sales data. While this week’s sales were well above reported market expectations of 900k-1.4 MMT, the vast majority of new sales were to China, which largely had been known/previously reported and don’t really appear to indicate anything outside of previous market talk. This week’s activity reflected net sales for the week of 1.558 MMT to China, bringing their total commitments so far to 3.6 MMT (1.3 MMT at this time last year), in line with overall market talk of purchases so far.
ï‚· U.S. corn sales remain tepid with 563k tonnes (22.1 million bushels) sold last week, in line with muted market expectations of 400-800k and little-changed from last week’s 19.4 million. Besides the solid week of pre-USDA report buying three weeks ago, three of the last four week’s sales have been just 19-22 million/week.
ï‚· U.S. wheat sales last week were just 329k tonnes (12.1 million bushels) and, while they were within market expectations of 200-500k tonnes, four of the last five week’s sales fell in a range of just 10-12 million bushels.
ï‚· New crop soybean meal sales last week of 137k tonnes were within market expectations of 50-250k tonnes, while new crop soybean oil sales for the week were zero vs expectations of 5-25k tonnes.
Weather Changes have introduced the chance for a freeze in most of MN, IA, WI and far northern IL Oct 11. Otherwise, one more rain will impact areas to the NW of a line from around Kansas City to Chicago this weekend. Totals to the south of that line look to be generally under .30†in most cases. The 6-10 day period sees dry weather for at least the first half of the week and then a front to roll through Thursday. The GFS is indicating rains of .50-1†to fall in far SE IA, most of MO, IL, IN and MI with that system, while the European is indicating little in the way of rainfall. Temps this morning were in the mid to upper 40s in most of MN, with some 30s in the far north. Changes to the forecast indicate temps in the upper 20s to low 30s will occur in MN, IA, WI and far northern IL on the morning of the 11th. This event is being indicated by all models, but is still far enough out to have some uncertainty. No other cold air threats are seen for the region in the next 10 days.