-Weather models waffle on next week’s potential frost/freeze event
-Biofuel policy changes may be moving to back burner
-Palm oil prices seen rising
-USDA reports additional soybean sales to China as expected
-Hogs and Pigs report this afternoon
-EU wheat crop raised, corn lowered
-USDA Grain Stocks/Small Grains Summary reports on Monday
Weather models this morning are differing on the advertised frost/freeze event in the northern belt next week, with the GFS holding onto upper 20s/low 30s the morning of October 3, while the European model has removed the threat completely.
The USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains Annual Summary report will be released on Monday, September 30. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/37449. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page. The high-level U.S./China trade talks are reportedly set for Oct 10-11 in Washington.  Various industry sources are citing concerns the previously apparently-imminent announcement of a biofuels policy change may be delayed indefinitely due to the impeachment inquiry of President Trump, with one source saying “It seems his interest has waned,†regarding the biofuels policy topic.
 An industry conference in India saw several widely-watched analysts update their palm oil-related outlooks. Dorab Mistry said he sees benchmark palm oil futures rising to around 2,500 ringgit/tonne ($596) by March vs current prices around 2,150 ringgit/tonne ($513), but will be influenced by/dependent on Indonesia’s implementation of the proposed B30 biodiesel blending mandate effective Jan 1 from the current B20 guideline. He sees 2019 Indonesian palm oil production at 43 MMT vs 45 MMT previously and last year’s 42 MMT, while 2019 Malaysian production ideas were left at 20.3 MMT. Indian vegoil imports are seen rising to 16.3 MMT in 19/20 from 15.6 MMT this year, with palm oil at 9.9 MMT vs 9.5 MMT in 18/19. The director general of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said Malaysian palm oil prices are seen at 2,200-2,300 ringgit/tonne in the 4th quarter of 2019, while 2020 Malaysian palm oil production is seen at 20.5 MMT, up only marginally from this year’s estimated 20.0 MMT. Oil World analyst Thomas Mielke said he sees Indonesian palm oil prices in Jan-June 2020 around $580/tonne.
 USDA reported 126k tonnes in soybean sales to China for 2019/20 this morning, putting this week’s officially-announced sales at 964k tonnes, although larger total sales are likely but just didn’t meet the specific daily reporting requirements.
 The European Commission raised their estimate of this year’s EU soft wheat crop to 145.0 MMT from 142.7 MMT previously, reflecting a significant recovery from last year’s drought-impacted 128.8 MMT crop. They left their estimate of EU soft wheat exports unchanged, though, at 25.5 MMT. The EU corn crop estimate was lowered to 66.5 MMT from 68.5 MMT previously, while total EU corn imports were raised to 17.0 MMT from 15.5 MMT previously. EU barley production was raised to 61.4 MMT from 60.5 MMT previously, while rapeseed production was lowered to 16.9 MMT from 17.5 MMT previously.
 France’s corn crop is still just 3% harvested (1% last week) vs last year’s very accelerated 21% pace at this time. Corn crop conditions were unchanged last week at 59% good/excellent. Winter wheat planting is just getting underway.
ï‚· This afternoon, the USDA will release the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report at 2:00 PM CT. The average trade estimate of all hogs and pigs as of Sept 1 is 102.8% of last year (77.268 mil head), with a range of ideas of 101.4-103.6, continuing the pattern of record high quarterly hog numbers for the 5th consecutive year. Kept for breeding is estimated at 101.4 (6.417 mil head), with a range of ideas of 101.0-101.7, while kept for marketing is estimated at 103.0 (70.844 mil head), with a range of 101.4-103.8.
Weather The GFS continues to show a chance for temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s in the Dakotas, western MN and NW IA by the morning of Oct. 3, with the European model no longer indicating any threat at all. The models also differ with rains for next week, but the general idea still sees above average rains are still seen for the NW ½ to 2/3rd of the Midwest, with average to below average rains in the SE in the next 10 days. Rains will work through the NW ½ to 2/3 of the corn belt in the next 1-2 days, bringing totals of .30-.1â€+ and coverage of around 70%. That front will die out and bring less than .20†to 25% of the areas southeast of a Kansas City to Chicago line. More rains will fall to the NW of that KC-Chicago line later Saturday into Sunday, with amounts of .40-1â€+. The models then differ with ideas for next week, with the European model still indicating rains of .50-1â€+ to fall in the NW ½ to 2/3 of the region Wed-Thur, while the GFS no longer sees this event to occur.