Posted on 11/5/2021 2:23:31 PM by Randy Mittelstaedt
The USDA put out an early release of their 10-year baseline balance sheet projections, which are used for government budgetary purposes. The full baseline report, including the typical USDA commentary, will be released in February, as usual. We have attached the full set of USDA baseline balance sheets to this post, which includes corn, wheat and the soybean complex, but also other feedgrains, livestock, dairy, cotton and sugar, as well.
The “starting point” for the baseline balance sheets was the October WASDE report estimates so the 2022/23 and forward balance sheets were built off the expectations from the WASDE report last month. Obviously, there is still the potential for considerable change in the 2021/22 balance sheets which would then impact the look/validity of the 2022/23 baseline projections, as well. Additionally, USDA will be releasing 2022/23 balance sheet ideas in late February at the annual Ag Outlook conference, which are deemed much more reflective of actual USDA thinking on the new crop situation than the baseline projections. Fundamentally, we do not put much value on the baseline projections, but they do get looked at by market participants.
Some highlights from the USDA’s baseline projections:
-2022 corn acreage 92.0 million acres and 181.0 bushel/acre yield (93.3 million/176.5 bushels currently this year)
-2022/23 U.S. corn ending stocks 1.935 billion bushels vs 2021/22 stocks currently estimated at 1.500 billion
-2022/23 corn exports 2.400 billion vs 2.500 billion estimated 21/22
-2022/23 corn stocks/usage ratio 13.0% vs 2021/22 currently estimated at 10.1%
-2022 soybean acreage 87.5 million acres and 51.5 bushel/acre yield (87.2 million/51.5 currently bushels this year)
-2022/23 U.S. soybean ending stocks 300 million bushels vs 2021/22 stocks currently estimated at 320 million
-2022/23 soybean exports 2.140 billion vs 2.090 billion estimated 21/22
-2022/23 soybean stocks/usage ratio 6.7% vs 2021/22 currently estimated at 7.3%
-2022/23 U.S. soybean oil ending stocks 1.833 billion pounds vs 2021/22 stocks currently estimated at 1.798 billion (21/22 stocks likely to be revised up notably in next week’s WASDE report as a result of higher 2020/21 stocks indicated in the recent Oilseeds Crushings report)
-2022/23 soybean oil used for biofuel 11.400 billion pounds vs 2021/22 currently estimated at 11.000 billion pounds
-2022 all wheat acreage 49.0 million acres and 49.1 bushel/acre yield (46.7 million/44.3 bushels this year)
-2022/23 U.S. wheat ending stocks 636 million bushels vs 2021/22 stocks currently estimated at 580 million
-2022/23 wheat stocks/usage ratio 30.8% vs 2021/22 currently estimated at 28.5%