NOPA soybean crush in January was higher than expected and a new all-time high, prompting record monthly soybean oil production which, in turn, resulted in a sharp increase in soybean oil stocks to the highest level for January in seven years and the 2nd highest stocks for any month since April 2014.
NOPA reported its members crushed 176.9 million bushels of soybeans in January, well above average market expectations of 173.7 million, up solidly from 174.8 million in December, 3.1% above last year’s 171.6 million bushels and reflected a new all-time record NOPA crush for any month. In recent months, U.S.-wide crush has averaged 5.8% above NOPA-member crush and would imply nationwide crush of 187.2 million bushels, which would just surpass the current record of 187.0 million set in October 2019. Based on this estimate, Sept-Jan marketing year to date crush of 896 million bushels would be essentially unchanged from last year’s 898 million and would require Feb-Aug crush to run 1.2% above last year in order for the USDA’s 2019/20 annual crush estimate of 2.105 billion bushels to be reached. Besides the slow start to the year in which September crush was down 5.1%, crush over the last four months has averaged 1.4% above year ago levels.
With the record crush, soybean oil production of NOPA members rose to a new all-time record high, regardless of month, of 2.035 billion pounds, up from 2.012 billion in December and compared to year ago Jan production of 1.993 billion pounds. The average soybean oil yield achieved by NOPA members in January held steady at 11.50 pounds/bushel vs 11.51 in December (11.53 November) and continues to run well below last year’s 11.61 in Jan. The Oct-Jan marketing year to date average NOPA SBO yield of 11.53 pounds/bushels compares to last year’s same-period average yield of 11.66.
With the larger than expected crush and rise in soybean oil production, soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members at the end of January surged to 2.013 billion pounds from 1.757 billion in December, sharply above average market expectations of 1.782 billion pounds and reflected a massive two-month increase in NOPA SBO stocks of 565 million pounds, a 39% increase from Nov stocks of 1.448 billion. By comparison, last year’s same-period two month stocks increase was just 65 million pounds, 402 million pounds two years ago, 316 million three years ago and 105 million four years ago. At 2.013 billion pounds, January stocks are the highest since 2013 for the month, are the highest outright in 21 months and are the 2nd outright highest stocks, regardless of month, since April 2014. A simple monthly “off-take” calculation (Dec stocks + Jan production – Jan stocks) of 1.778 billion pounds was up from 1.703 billion in December, but well below last January’s 1.942 billion.
NOPA members reported producing 4.151 million tons of soybean meal in January vs 4.112 million in December and 4.006 million tons last year, while exporting 931k tons in the month vs 903k in December and 906k tons last year January.