-April U.S. soybean crush slightly lower than expected
-April U.S. soybean oil stocks marginally higher than expected-April corn for ethanol usage supports ideas for slightly higher annual usage than USDA projection
USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in April was 169.9 million bushels, slightly less than the average trade estimate of 171.1 million (170.0-173.0 million range of ideas), down from 188.2 million bushels in March and down 7.4% (13.5 million bushels) from last year’s April crush of 183.4 million. Accordingly, 2020/21 crush to date (Sept-Apr) of 1.471 billion bushels compares to 1.449 billion last year, leaving May-August crush needing total 719 million bushels in order to reach the USDA’s 2.190 billion bushel annual estimate vs last year’s 716 million bushels for the period. Over the last three months (Feb-Apr), total soybean crush of 552 million bushels has been down 5.2% from last year, leaving the prospect of May-Aug crush running in line with, to above year ago levels, somewhat questionable. The possibility of finding a few bushels in the old crop balance sheet due to declining crush rates appears to be improving. USDA reported U.S. soybean oil production in April was 1.992 billion pounds vs 2.222 billion in March and 2.099 billion pounds last year, with the average soybean oil yield remaining strong at 11.73 pounds/bushel vs 11.81 in March and 11.45 last year April. End April U.S. soybean oil stocks were reported at 2.178 billion pounds, marginally above the average trade estimate of 2.171 billion (2.150-2.200 billion range of ideas) despite crush being slightly lower than expected. April soybean oil stocks, though, were down from 2.245 billion in March, solidly below last year’s 2.601 billion pounds and the lowest for the month of April since 2015. Moreover, based on estimated exports, April domestic soybean oil usage was implied up roughly 20% from last year following March domestic usage up 10% and February up 6%. For the 2020/21 marketing year to date, domestic soybean oil usage is running roughly 10% above year ago levels vs the USDA’s current annual estimate reflecting a 5.8% increase from 2019/20. U.S. soybean meal/hull production in April was 4.045 million tons vs 4.477 million in March and 4.312 million tons last year, putting marketing year to date production at 30.788 million tons vs 30.210 million last year. Based on estimated exports, April domestic soybean meal usage was implied down nearly 3% from last and followed March domestic usage up 2.6% and February down 2.4%. For the 2020/21 marketing year so far, domestic soybean meal usage is running a mere 0.6% above year ago levels, marginally behind the USDA marketing year total estimate for a 1% increase from 2019/20.
In this month’s Grain Crushings report, USDA reported 410.0 million bushels of corn was used for ethanol production vs 419.6 million in March and 245.0 million bushels last year amid the massive COVID-related pullbacks. Relative to our current 2018/19 “measuring stick,” corn for ethanol usage was 6.9% below April 2019’s 440.5 million vs ethanol production in April being an estimated 9% below production for the month in 2019, with corn usage being a bit higher, relatively speaking, given the minimal sorghum usage currently and implied ethanol/corn yields for April being a bit below those in 2019 for the month. 2020/21 marketing year to date corn for ethanol usage of 3.275 billion bushels compares to 3.340 billion last year and 3.557 billion bushels in 2018/19, leaving May-August usage needing to total 1.700 billion bushels in order to reach USDA’s 4.975 billion bushel estimate vs 1.517 billion bushels last year and 1.821 billion during May-August in 2018/19. Accordingly, corn for ethanol usage needs to run 6.7% below 2019 levels for the remainder of the marketing year in order to not exceed the USDA’s annual projection vs the 5.7% average decline in ethanol production during the most-recent 4-week period relative to 2019 and the 5.8% average decline to 2019 over the last 12 weeks. Accordingly, if the same pace relative to 2019 is maintained through August, the USDA’s annual estimate is likely to prove somewhat too low. USDA reported 1.786 million tons of DDGS were produced in April vs 1.803 million in March, putting 2020/21 corn marketing year to date production at 13.901 million tons vs 13.846 million tons last year.
