-January U.S. soybean crush slightly higher than expected
-January U.S. soybean oil stocks higher than expected
USDA reported U.S. soybean crush in January was 194.3 million bushels, slightly above average market expectations of 193.7 million bushels and at the top end of the range of ideas of 193.0-194.3 million, but still down modestly from December crush of 198.2 million bushels and 1.1% below last year’s January crush of 196.5 million bushels. Nationwide crush in January was 6.6% larger than NOPA-member only crush of 182.2 million bushels, a bit above the 6.2-6.3% differences in October and November, but right in line with the average difference over the previous six months. The average daily crush rate of 6.27 million bushels/day compared to 6.39 in December and 6.34 million in January last year. Now through five months of the 2021/22 marketing year, cumulative soybean crush of 944 million bushels is nearly identical to last year’s 948 million during the same period, leaving Feb-Aug crush needing total 1.271 billion bushels in order to reach the USDA’s 2.215 billion bushel marketing year total estimate, a 6.5% (78 million bushel) increase from last year’s 1.193 billion bushels and would marginally be a new record for the period in exceeding 2019/20’s 1.267 billion bushels. Last year’s crush ran at significantly-reduced levels during Feb-Aug due to the notable tight supply concerns, leaving little concern in achieving the “needed” 6.5% year-over-year increase, with the same view being held needing to slightly exceed the current record for Feb-Aug crush, as well, given the continued very strong crush margin structure and expected strong domestic demand for soybean oil from the renewable fuels industry.
USDA reported U.S. soybean oil production in January was 2.277 billion pounds vs 2.324 billion in December and 2.309 billion pounds last year, with the average soybean oil yield of 11.72 pounds/bushel holding steady from December falling a touch below last year’s January yield of 11.75 pounds/bushel. Through the first four months of the 2021/22 soybean oil marketing year, the soybean oil yield has averaged 11.77 pounds/bushel vs 11.62 during the same period last year. Nationwide soybean oil production in January was 5.9% larger than NOPA-member production, comparable to the 6.1% and 5.9% differences in December and November, respectively. USDA reported nationwide soybean oil stocks at the end of January were 2.500 billion pounds, respectfully higher than average market expectations of 2.459 billion pounds and up modestly from December stocks of 2.466 billion pounds, while the average trade estimate reflected an expected slight decline for the month. The range of market ideas was 2.425-2.498 billion pounds. Nationwide soybean oil stocks were 23.4% larger than NOPA-member stocks, a bit higher than the 21.4% difference in December, but still well below the 29.0% average difference over the previous 12 months. Soybean oil stocks continue to run well above year ago levels, with last year’s January stocks being 2.306 billion pounds and remain the highest of the last nine years on a same-month comparison basis. Based on estimated exports for the month, domestic soybean oil usage in January was implied up roughly 10% from last year, rising from the 4.1% increase in domestic usage during Oct-Dec and putting marketing year-to-date domestic usage up 5.4% from last year, while the USDA’s 2021/22 marketing year total domestic usage estimate of 25.285 billion pounds reflects an expected 8.4% increase from last year.
USDA reported soybean meal/hull production in January was 4.533 million tons vs 4.630 million in December and 4.666 million tons last year January, bringing marketing year-to-date production to 18.21 million tons vs 18.34 million tons last year. Based on estimated exports for the month, January soybean meal domestic usage was implied up 3% from last year after Oct-Dec domestic usage ran 0.9% below year ago levels, putting marketing year-to-date estimated implied domestic usage unchanged from last year vs USDA estimating 2021/22 total domestic usage to be up nearly 1% year-over-year.
