-Corn exports in lower portion of expectations
-Soybean exports as expected
-Wheat exports lower than expected
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 3/10/22, were 1.145 MMT (45.1 million bushels), within expectations but at the end of overall ideas of 1.0-1.65 MMT (39.4-65.0 mil bu), down solidly from the previous week’s 1.582 MMT (62.3 mil bu), as well as last year’s same-week exports of 2.274 MMT (89.5 mil bu) and were the lowest in five weeks. Over the previous four-week period, corn exports ran at a very consistent and solid pace of 57-62 million bushels/week. This week’s activity included 336k tonnes of corn being shipped to China, leaving them with roughly 6.2 MMT of unshipped U.S. corn purchases still on the books vs 11.6 MMT at this time last year. Recently-released monthly Census Bureau trade data reflected the continuation of official exports running substantially larger than Inspections data, with a nearly 140 million bushel difference between the two through January and potentially reaching 300+ million bushels for the 2021/22 marketing year in total. We account for this difference in our weekly “needed” shipment calculation, now at a required 48.1 million bushels/week through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s new 2.500 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 56.3 million/week average from this point forward. The loss of Ukraine corn from global trade flows and the reduced Argentine corn crop continue to leave 2021/22 U.S. corn export prospects biased to the upside relative to the USDA’s ideas and will need to be monitored extremely closely in the months ahead. Cumulative export inspections of 1.021 billion bushels are down 14% from last year’s 1.189 billion slightly more than halfway through the marketing year.
U.S. soybean exports last week were 773k tonnes (28.4 mil bu), in line with market expectations of 600-875k tonnes (22.0-32.2 mil bu), nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 769k tonnes (28.2 mil bu) but solidly above last year’s same-week exports of 549k tonnes (20.2 mil bu), prompting cumulative export inspections of 1.549 billion bushels to narrow the deficit to last year’s 1.959 billion bushels to a 14-week low of 21.0%. unlike corn, the difference between Census Bureau trade data and Inspections is much more typical, with official exports only 25 million bushels larger than Inspections through January. Over the last three weeks, soybean exports have been quite steady, averaging 27.9 million bushels/week in a range of 27.1-28.4 million bushels and running better then the roughly 20.2 million/week average we estimate will be needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection, which reflects an estimated 7.7% decline from last year. Soybean exports from this point forward last year averaged only 8.8 million bushels/week. This week’s activity included 387k tonnes shipped to China, leaving them with an estimated 2.2 MMT of unshipped old crop soybean purchases still on the books vs 1.1 MMT at this time last year. Taking into account potential Chinese purchases still reflected as “unknown,” their outstanding sales could be as high as 4 MMT vs 2 MMT last year.
U.S. wheat export last week were a tepid 282k tonnes (10.4 mil bu), below market expectations of 300-550k tonnes (11.0-20.2 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 403k tonnes (14.8 mil bu), well below year ago exports this week of 715k tonnes (26.3 mil bu) and were a 9-week low. Cumulative export inspections of 595 million bushels are now down 16.5% from last year’s 712 million, while the USDA’s just-lowered 800 million bushel export projection reflects an expected 19.4% decline from last year. We continue to hold out hope for at least a modest uptick in U.S. exports in the final few months of 2021/22 given the Russian/Ukrainian situation, as we’re using 825 million bushels for exports in our balance sheet, but that is being questioned every week as the overall pace of U.S. exports remains disappointing. We estimate wheat exports will need to average roughly 12.3 million bushels/week through the final 11 weeks of 2021/22 to reach the USDA’s export estimate vs last year’s 19.6 million/week average from this point forward.
