Posted on 11/8/2021 11:04:41 AM by Randy Mittelstaedt
-Corn exports at very bottom of expectations
-Soybean exports higher than expected
-Wheat exports within expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 11/04/21, were 563k tonnes (22.2 million bushels), at the very bottom of market expectations of 550k-1.0 MMT (21.7-39.4 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 671k tonnes (26.4 mil bu), below last year’s same-week exports of 693k tonnes (27.3 mil bu) and were the lowest in seven weeks. With soybean exports running seasonally quite strong, it’s not surprising to see muted corn export activity for the time being, but it does put additional importance on much stronger exports being needed later in the year. Through the first 10 weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year, corn exports have averaged only 24.0 million bushels/week vs 32.3 million/week average last year with the impacts from Hurricane Ida obviously a factor. However, given the slow start, we estimate corn exports will now need to average 50.4 million bushels/week throughout Nov-Aug to reach the USDA’s 2.500 billion bushel export projection, not much different than last year’s 53.2 million/week average from this point forward despite marketing year total exports estimated to decline 9% from 2020/21. Cumulative export inspections of 238 million bushels are now down 21% from last year’s 299 million.
U.S. soybean exports last week were strong at 2.647 MMT (97.3 million bushels), just above the range of market ideas of 1.1-2.5 MMT (40.4-92.4 mil bu), were nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 2.608 MMT (95.8 mil bu) and were comparable to last year’s same-week exports of 2.852 MMT (104.8 mil bu). Last week’s exports included 1.8 MMT to China. Over the last four weeks, exports averaged a very solid 94.3 million bushels/week, nearly identical to last year’s 96.2 million/week average during the same period, but given the slow start, cumulative export inspections of 509 million bushels are still down 31% from last year’s 736 million. Accordingly, we estimate soybean exports will need to average roughly 35.5 million bushels/week for the remainder of the marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection vs last year’s 33.2 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 232k tonnes (8.5 mil bu) were within market expectations of 150-400k tonnes (5.5-14.7 mil bu) but were quite weak again in the big picture, as wheat exports have averaged only 6.4 million bushels/week over the last four weeks vs 11.6 million/week during the same period last year, while cumulative export inspections of 364 million bushels are now down more than 15% from last year’s 430 million through 23 weeks of the marketing year. In order to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, which would be down nearly 12% from last year’s 992 million, we estimate wheat exports will need to average roughly 15.6 million bushels/week through the end of May vs last year’s 17.1 million/week average from this point forward.
