-Corn exports begin rebounding but still historically low
-Soybean exports within expectations but remain low
-Wheat exports at upper end of expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 9/16/21, were 403k tonnes (15.9 million bushels), up from the previous week’s 159k (6.3 million bushels) and at the upper end of market expectations of 150-450k tonnes (5.9-17.7 mil bu), but remain historically low as the post-Hurricane Ida recovery continues. In fact, while corn exports were the highest in three weeks, they were the lowest for this week of the marketing year in 35 years, leaving 2021/22 cumulative Export Inspections at only 30.2 million bushels vs 78.4 million at this time last year. This week’s data showed 200k tonnes of corn being shipped out of U.S. Gulf ports, the first in several weeks, in an encouraging sign. Based on the USDA’s 2.475 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn exports will need to average roughly 47.0 million bushels/week over the course of the marketing year vs last year’s 50.2 million bushel/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean exports last week were 275k tonnes (10.1 million bushels), up marginally from the previous week’s 193k tonnes (7.1 mil bu), but massively below last year’s same-week exports of 1.391 MMT (51.1 mil bu) as export activity out of the Gulf remains very limited. Total exports were within market expectations of 100-400k tonnes (3.7-14.7 mil bu). This week’s data showed 150k tonnes of soybeans being shipped out of U.S. Gulf ports, obviously significantly less than normal but at least starting the trickle out once again. Given the limited exports out of the Gulf, this week’s total shipments were the lowest for the specific week in 10 years. Cumulative export inspections sit at only 18.3 million bushels vs 136.2 million bushels exported at this point of the marketing year last year, leaving exports needing to average roughly 40.0 million bushels/week over the course of the year vs last year’s 40.4 million/week average in order to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection (2.260 billion last year).
U.S. wheat exports last week of 563k tonnes (20.7 mil bu) were at the upper end of market expectations of 350-600k tonnes (12.9-22.0 mil bu), nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 567k tonnes (20.9 mil bu) and slightly better than last year’s same-week exports of 503k tonnes (18.4 mil bu). Moreover, wheat exports have generally been respectable of late, averaging 20.3 million bushels/week over the last 7 weeks vs 20.9 million/week during the same period last year and running above the roughly 15.0 million/week average we estimate is needed to reach the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection. With the majority of U.S. wheat exports being shipped out of Texas Gulf or PNW ports, there has not been much impact from Hurricane Ida. Cumulative wheat export inspections of 283 million bushels are still down 11% from last year’s 318 million given the slow start to the marketing year’s exports, though.
