-Corn exports minimal again – below expectations
-Soybean exports minimal again – at bottom of expectations
-Wheat exports slightly above range of expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 9/09/21, were minimal again at only 138k tonnes (5.4 million bushels) as NOLA ports remain hindered by the impacts of Hurricane Ida. Market ideas for this week’s corn exports reflected expectations for at least a bit of an improvement to 250-600k tonnes (9.8-23.6 million bushels), but that wasn’t the case as exports actually declined from the previous week’s 278k tonnes (11.0 mil bu) and were, needless to say, significantly below last year’s same-week exports of 939k tonnes (37.0 mil bu). Through the first full week of the 21/22 marketing year, cumulative exports sit at only 7.0 million bushels vs 47.7 million last year as the resumption of Gulf exports is awaited. This week’s data showed no corn loading activity whatsoever out of Gulf or PNW ports. Based on the USDA’s 2.475 billion bushel export projection, we estimate corn exports will need to average roughly 46.5 million bushels/week over the course of the marketing year vs last year’s 49.8 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. soybean exports last week were minimal again, as well, at 105k tonnes (3.9 million bushels), little-changed from the previous week’s 91k tonnes (3.3 mil bu, at the bottom of market expectations of 75-300k tonnes (2.8-8.3 mil bu) and compared to last year’s 1.635 MMT (60.1 mil bu) as the new crop export program quickly ramped up. For soybeans, no Gulf loading activity was reported for the week, as well, while PNW ports only loaded 63k tonnes, all to China. Through the first nine days of the 2021/22 marketing year, cumulative export inspections stand at only 5.0 million bushels vs 85.1 million a year ago. Based on the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection, we estimate soybean export inspections will need to average 39.5 million bushels/week over the course of the marketing year, similar to last year’s 40.6 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week were respectable at 548k tonnes (20.1 mil bu), slightly above the range of market expectations of 200-500k tonnes (7.3-18.4 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 413k tonnes (15.2 mil bu) and the best in three weeks. Last year’s exports this week, though, were a bit better at 694k tonnes (25.5 mil bu). Now 15 weeks into the 2021/22 marketing year, cumulative export inspections of 260 million bushels are down 13% from last year’s 300 million, the largest percentage shortfall in exports in five weeks. Based on the USDA’s 875 million bushel export projection, we estimate export inspections will need to average roughly 15.2 million bushels/week from this point forward vs last year’s 16.9 million/week average.
