-Corn exports at top end of expectations
-Soybean exports as expected
-Wheat exports at bottom of expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 3/24/22, were 1.607 MMT (63.2 million bushels), at the top end of market expectations of 1.0-1.665 MMT (39.4-65.5 mil bu), up modestly from the previous week’s 1.497 MMT (58.9 mil bu), but below last year’s same-week exports of 1.789 MMT (70.4 mil bu). More importantly, corn exports continue at a rather solid pace, averaging 58.6 million bushels/week over the last 7 weeks, easily keeping up with the roughly 47.0 million/week average we estimate Export Inspections will need to average through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s current 2.500 billion bushel export projection. Given the very strong export program to China at this time last year, though, exports during the same period averaged nearly 70 million bushels/week in 2021. This week’s activity included 457k tonnes of corn shipped to China, leaving them with roughly 5.3 MMT of unshipped U.S. corn purchases still on the books vs 14.7 MMT remaining a year ago. Cumulative export inspections of 1.143 billion bushels are down nearly 15% from last year’s 1.339 billion vs USDA estimating this year’s exports will be down 9.2% from a year ago. For reference, U.S. corn exports averaged 54.8 mil bu/week from this point forward last year.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 629k tonnes (23.1 ml bu) were up modestly from the previous week’s 554k tonnes (20.3 mil bu), above year ago exports this week of 245k tonnes (16.6 mil bu) and were within market expectations of 500-800k tonnes (18.4-29.4 mil bu). Soybean exports over the last five weeks have been fairly consistent, ranging from 20.3-29.3 mil bu, averaging 25.6 mil bu/week and more than keeping up with the roughly 19.9 million bushels/week we estimate will be needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection. Soybean exports from this point forward last year averaged only 8.1 mil bu/week. This week’s activity included 288k tonnes of soybeans being shipped to China, leaving their unshipped old crop purchases as roughly 2.2 MMT vs 1.2 MMT unshipped a year ago. Cumulative export inspections of 1.596 billion bushels are down 20% from last year’s 1.994 billion, but gaining, vs USDA estimating 2021/22 exports to be down 7.7% from last year.
U.S. wheat exports remain tepid with 341k tonnes (12.5 mil bu) shipped last week, nearly unchanged from the previous week’s 334k tonnes (12.3 mil bu) and holding in line with the steady pace over the last five weeks of 11.3-15.8 mil bu/week, averaging 13.3 million/week during the period. While well below year ago exports during the same period of 18.7 mil bu/week, they are keeping up with the roughly 12.2 million/week average we estimate is needed through the end of May in order to reach the USDA’s 800 million bushel export projection. Cumulative export inspections of 621 million bushels are down 17.0% from last year’s 748 million vs USDA estimating this year’s exports to be down 19.4% from year ago levels.
