-Corn exports as expected
-Soybean exports at bottom of expectations
-Wheat exports within expectations
U.S. corn exports, for the week ended 3/17/22, were 1.466 MMT (57.7 million bushels), within market expectations of 1.140-1.600 MMT (44.9-63.0 mil bu), up from the previous week’s 1.147 MMT (45.1 mil bu) but well below last year’s same-week exports of 2.018 MMT (79.4 mil bu), continuing the theme of late as each of the last four weeks’ exports were below year ago levels. Accordingly, cumulative export inspections of 1.078 billion bushels are now down 15.0% from last year’s 1.268 billion after narrowing the deficit to last year to 10.6% in mid-February. More importantly, though, corn shipments over the last six weeks averaged 57.6 million bushels, above the roughly 47.7 million/week average we estimate will be needed through the end of August in order to reach the USDA’s current 2.500 billion bushel export projection. U.S. corn exports from this point forward last year averaged a very strong 55.3 million bushels/week thanks to an aggressive export program to China. This week’s activity included 478k tonnes shipped to China, reducing their outstanding/unshipped U.S. corn purchases to around 5.7 MMT vs 15.1 MMT still unshipped at this time last year. The very likely notably-reduced export program to China during Apr-Aug vs last year is something that will need to be monitored closely moving forward as that reduced demand will need to be replaced by other buyers to maintain the heavy export pace needed to reach the USDA’s export projection. With the reduced Argentine crop and Ukraine’s absence from the export market, obviously prospects are strong for an above average export program in the months ahead, but making up the 7-8 MMT of likely lower exports to China during Apr-Aug than last year is noteworthy task.
U.S. soybean exports last week of 545k tonnes (20.0 mil bu) were at the bottom of market expectations of 500-850k tonnes (18.4-31.2 mil bu), down from the previous week’s 797k tonnes (29.3 mil bu) but comparable to last year’s same-week exports of 495k tonnes (18.2 mil bu). Last week’s activity included 165k tonnes shipped to China, reducing their outstanding old crop purchases to about 1.9 MMT vs 1.1 MMT unshipped at this time last year. Cumulative export inspections of 1.570 billion bushels are down 20.6% from last year’s 1.978 billion vs USDA’s 2.090 billion bushel export projection reflecting an expected 7.7% decline in annual exports from last year. Accordingly, we estimate soybean exports will need to average roughly 20.2 million bushels/week through the end of August vs last year’s 8.4 million/week average from this point forward.
U.S. wheat exports last week of 331k tonnes (12.1 mil bu) were little-changed from the previous week’s 307k tonnes (11.3 mil bu), within market expectations of 275-500k tonnes (10.1-18.4 mil bu) but considerably below last year’s same-week exports of 657k tonnes (24.1 mil bu). More importantly, though, last week’s exports were in line with the roughly 12.3 million bushels/week average we estimate will be needed over the final 10 weeks of the 2021/22 marketing year in order to reach the USDA’s 800 million bushel export projection, while they have been fairly consistent of late in that regard, as well, averaging 13.5 mil bu/week over the last four weeks. Cumulative export inspections of 608 million bushels are down 17% from last year’s 736 million vs USDA estimating this year’s exports to fall 19.4% from year ago levels.
