This morning, in the opening session of the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum, some preliminary ideas on the 2021/22 U.S. crop situation were released by the USDA. This post contains a look at USDA’s initial look at new crop acreage ideas, along with estimated average farm price expectations for the coming year. Their full initial ideas on the 2021/22 balance sheets will be released tomorrow morning.
Initial 2021/22 acreage ideas by USDA indicate expectations for total acreage among corn, wheat and soybeans to rise to 227.0 million acres from last year’s 218.3 million and compares to the sum of average wire service survey estimates of 228.0 million acres. With prices rising sharply and U.S. balance sheets tightening considerably, especially soybeans and corn, expectations are for a return of total planted acreage towards decade-high levels barring major weather-related planting issues this spring. Planting has been considerably challenged in recent years with 10.2 million acres in Prevented Planting claims last year and 19.6 million acres in the disastrous 2019 campaign. For comparison, in the 2015-2018 crop years, combined corn, soybean and wheat area ranged from 225.7-227.6 million acres, and 228.4-230.7 million acres from 2012-2014.
Initial USDA corn acreage ideas were put at 92.0 million acres vs 90.819 million last year and compares to the 90.0 million acres USDA showed in their previously-released baseline projections. A wire service survey ahead of today’s numbers put the average expectation at 92.9 million acres (91.5-96.0 million range of ideas). USDA looks for soybean acreage at 90.0 mil acres vs 83.084 mil last year and compares to the 89.0 mil they penciled in their baseline projections. Average market expectations were put at 89.8 million acres (87.0-92.0 million range). All wheat planted area is seen at 45.0 mil acres by USDA vs 44.349 mil last year and the baseline balance sheet putting this year’s acreage at 46.0 million, while average market expectations were 45.3 million (42.0-47.0 million range). Based on the USDA’s January Winter Wheat Seedings report estimate of 31.991 million acres, USDA’s total spring wheat (other spring + durum) acreage assumption would be 13.009 million acres vs last year’s 13.934 million.
USDA reflected cotton acres at 12.0 million acres vs 12.093 million last year. Combined corn, soybean, wheat and cotton acres are estimated by USDA at 239.0 million acres vs 230.3 million last year (225.1 million 2019) and the 2015-2018 average of 237.7 million (234.3-240.0 million range). During 2012-2014, the 4-crop acreage total averaged 241.1 million acres, ranging from 238.8-242.5 million.
The table below shows a comparison of the USDA’s February Ag Outlook Conference acreage estimates to actual acreage over the last 16 years.
The 2021/22 corn average farm price expectation was put at $4.20/bushel and compares to 2020/21’s estimated $4.30.
USDA sees the 2021/22U.S. average farm price for soybeans at $11.25/bushel vs an estimated $11.15 for 2020/21.
The 2021/22 wheat average farm price is seen $5.50/bushel vs $5.00 for 2020/21.
The 2021/22 cotton average farm price was estimated at 75.0 cents/lb vs 68.0 for 2020/21.
For livestock, USDA sees the 2021 U.S. cattle average price at $115.00/cwt vs $108.51/cwt for 2020, hogs at $50.50/cwt vs $43.18/cwt for 2020 and broilers at 84.50 cents/pound vs 73.2 cents/pound for 2020.
The following table provides a comparison of the USDA’s February Ag Outlook conference grain price estimates vs actual levels over the last 13 years.
USDA will release the full look at the 2021/22 balance sheets tomorrow morning.
