-China new crop corn imports seen lower than USDA ideas – weakening prices possible
-Taiwan buys Brazilian corn
-USDA reports corn sales to Mexico
-Revised Census trade data slightly alters Sept 1 soybean stocks ideas
-Good rains expected for most of central/southern plains
USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and Small Grains Annual Summary report will be out on Thursday at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/45273. A summary of the average trade
estimates is the last page.
 In a live-streamed event, an analyst with China’s government think tank CNGOIC said this year’s expected bumper corn crop and strong level of imports, although down solidly from last year, is expected to allow domestic corn prices to decline during the first quarter of 2022. Chinese corn futures have already declined by around 13% since the highs in May. He said 2021/22 Chinese corn imports are expected to be 20 MMT vs 29 MMT in 2020/21 (USDA 26.0 MMT for 2020/21 and 2021/22), with sorghum imports expected up modestly to 10.0 MMT from 8.5 MMT this year, barley imports 12.0 MMT vs 11.4 MMT this year and DDGS imports expected to remain limited at around only 200k tonnes. Domestic stocks of feed wheat and rice were said to remain plentiful. A specific update on this year’s expected corn crop was not provided, but China’s last official estimate of the was 271.8 MMT vs last year’s 260.7 MMT, while USDA was last at 273.0 MMT.
 Ukraine’s 2022/23 winter wheat crop is 29% planted vs 25% at this time last year, but the 1.95 million hectares (4.8 mil acres) planted so far this year is solidly ahead of the 1.5 mil hectares (3.7 mil acres) a year ago as drought conditions delayed farmers from getting in the fields last year. Ukraine is expecting this year’s winter wheat area, which accounts for roughly 95% of total wheat production, to rise nearly 10% from last year.
ï‚· Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of Brazilian corn for Dec shipment at +292 cents CH2 (~$330/tonne) c&f, while only one offer of U.S. corn was made and more than $1.00 higher at +398 cents CH2. Three other Brazilian offers were submitted, as were 4 Argentine offers, the lowest at +292.25 cents CH2.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 150k tonnes of corn to Mexico for 2021/22 delivery this morning.
 U.S. corn crop conditions were unchanged last week, as expected, at 59% g/e, remaining comparable to last year’s 61% and in line with 2019 conditions at this time to hold near the lowest levels of the last 8 years. Corn harvest is now 18% complete vs 10% last week and 15% average. IL is 21% harvested, IA 9% and MN 10%, all slightly ahead of average. Soybean conditions were also unchanged last week at 58% g/e and compare to 64% g/e last year, remaining the 2nd lowest of the last 8 years for late September. Soybean harvest is 16% complete vs 6% last week and 13% average. IL soybean harvest is 10% complete, IA 18% and MN 30%, with IL in line with average and IA and MN ahead of average. U.S. winter wheat planting is 34% complete, up from 22% last week and in line with average of 32%.
 Quick note on updated ideas for Thursday’s Grain Stocks report for soybeans: In a re-examination of official Census Bureau trade data, U.S. soybean exports for last Oct, Nov and Dec were revised lower by nearly 20 million bushels combined. Accordingly, where we had previously expected 2020/21 total soybean exports to be around 19 million bushels higher than USDA at 2.279 billion bushels, it now appears exports will be very near their 2.260 billion bushel estimate, leaving our Sept 1 soybean stocks (2020/21 ending stocks) estimate in line with the USDA’s current 175 million bushel estimate vs the potential to be 20 million bushels lower based on the previous export data.