-Argentine rains do not disappoint – additional heavy amounts expected
-NOPA crush report today
-Study shows not-so-optimistic renewable diesel expansion potential
-Good early Brazilian soybean yields as harvest gears up
 Weekend rains across Argentina did not disappoint with widespread 1.0-2.5†rains across the majority of corn/soybean areas, with copious additional rains over the next 10 days of 2-3†expected for nearly all areas, as well. A widely-followed Argentine ag meteorologist said the weekend rains and forecast moving forward represents a shift in Argentina’s rain pattern as the La Nina influence subsides. There is no doubt early planted corn and soybeans suffered irreversible damage from the previous hot/dry conditions, but late-planted crops will clearly benefit from these rains and will significantly aid the finishing up of planting as roughly 15% of Argentine corn area still remained to be planted as of last week. Much cooler temps are expected moving forward, as well. Much-improved rains are also expected across Southern Brazil over the next 10 days with 1.5-2.0†expected in RGDS, Parana and Santa Caterina.
 A study conducted by an alternative fuels/climate consultant indicated U.S. renewable diesel production is likely to fall significantly short of the EIA’s ideas of capacity potentially surging to 5 billion gallons by 2025 from current capacity levels around 1 billion gallons. Specifically, the study showed a “high-end estimate†of U.S. renewable diesel production capacity by 2025 of 2.0 billion gallons, while actual renewable diesel production in 2021 appears likely to be around 700 million gallons. Feedstock availability constraints and weak government policy, among other factors, will limit capacity expansion. Any notable increase in renewable diesel production is likely to shift current feedstock usage away from traditional biodiesel production, providing an offsetting impact.
 Brazil’s government reaffirmed their decision last month to maintain the biodiesel blend at 10% throughout 2022. Earlier plans for an increase in March 2022 to 14% from the current 10% (which was lowered from 13% last September), were reversed in late November.
 Brazil’s soybean harvest is 1-2% complete with rains in the north hindering early progress, but a drier forecast in the region is expected to allow harvest to quickly accelerate. Very early yields in Mato Grosso are said to be quite good.
 Malaysian palm oil futures were higher overnight following Indonesia announcing they will require palm oil exporters to obtain export permits for all palm oil exports over the next six months. While the quantity of exports will not be limited, the additional layer of bureaucracy is deemed a bit supportive as it may somewhat restrict Indonesian exports. The temporary requirement is being taken to more closely monitor palm oil exports amid surging vegoil prices in the country. In order to be granted export permits, all palm oil producers will also be required to report how much palm oil they’ve supplied into the domestic market, as well. In addition to the export permit requirement, Indonesia also announced they will begin road tests of B40 biodiesel blends in February, an earlier development than some expected as the potential move up from the current B30 blend was thought to likely be delayed until after 2022 given the historically high vegoil prices.
 China’s latest state reserve wheat auction on January 12 saw 100% of the 501k tonnes offered be sold again at an average price of $427.43/tonne ($11.63/bu).
 Official Chinese trade data for December showed corn imports were 1.33 MMT vs 790k tonnes in November and 2.25 MMT last year Dec, putting 2021 calendar year total imports at a record 28.3 MMT vs last year’s 11.3 MMT. However, imports during the first quarter (Oct-Dec) of the 2021/22 marketing year of 3.42 MMT are down 1.2 MMT from last year so far. Other grain imports remain elevated, as well, with 940k tonnes of wheat imported in December (750k Nov/880k last year), 710k tonnes sorghum (530k Nov/550k last year) and 1.02 MMT barley (1.53 MMT Nov/980k last year). Combined wheat, sorghum and barley imports in 2021 were 31.7 MMT vs 21.3 MMT in 2020, with Oct-Dec imports of 8.1 MMT vs 7.1 MMT last year.
ï‚· USDA reported 239k tonnes of soybeans sold to Mexico and 126k tonnes of sorghum to unknown for 2021/22 delivery this morning.
 NOPA will release their monthly soybean crush data today at 11:00 AM CT. The average trade estimate of December soybean crush by NOPA members is 185.0 million bushels (181.7-188.7 million range of ideas) vs 179.5 million in November, 183.2 million last year and would be a new record for the month. The average estimate of end December soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.892 billion pounds (1.825-2.000 billion range), up from 1.832 billion in Nov, solidly above last year’s Dec stocks of 1.699 billion and would be the highest NOPA soybean oil stocks in December in 9 years