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-Improved crop conditions/rain forecast weigh on soybeans
-June U.S. soybean oil stocks sharply higher than expected
-Ethiopia cancels wheat tender/Taiwan buys South African corn

Better than expected crop conditions and rains in the 6-10 day forecast weighed on the soybean market overnight, lending a negative influence on corn and wheat, as well.
 U.S. corn conditions declined 2% in good/excellent ratings last week to 62% vs average expectations for a 1% decline and compares to last year’s 72% g/e rating at this time. Overall corn conditions are below the most-recent 5-year average for early August. Declining conditions in the west (IA down 3%, KS down 4%, NE down 5%, MN down 2%, ND down 3%) more than offset the eastern increases of IN up 3% and OH up 4%, while IL was unchanged.
ï‚· On the other hand, U.S. soybean conditions improved 2% in g/e last week vs average expectations for a 1% decline, now at 605 g/e and compare to 73% g/e last year. Widespread improvements were seen in the eastern belt with OH up 6%, IN up 4% and IL up 3%, while IA, WI and ND were unchanged. Lower conditions were reported in MN, MO and NE all down 2%, while KS was down 3%. Overall soybean conditions remain the 3rd lowest of the last nine years for early August, though.
ï‚· Spring wheat conditions improved 1% in g/e, but at only 10% g/e, remain tied for worst on record for early August based on our weighted condition index. Harvest is now 17% complete vs 3% last week and 8% average. U.S. winter wheat harvest is 91% complete vs 86% average.
 For details of yesterday’s Crop Progress update, see our Market Insights post at ttps://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44720.
 Yesterday afternoon’s monthly USDA Oilseeds Crushings report showing June U.S. soybean crush of 161.7 million bushels continued to strongly suggest the USDA’s 2.170 billion bushel annual crush estimate is too high, while end June soybean oil stocks of 2.100 billion pounds were sharply higher than expected, implying a notable slowdown in domestic usage has been occurring.
 Yesterday afternoon’s monthly USDA Grain Crushings report put June corn for ethanol usage at 439.9 million bushels and, while a bit below what was expected, continued to support the USDA’s 5.050 billion bushel annual corn for ethanol usage estimate.
 For details on the USDA’s Oilseeds and Grain Crushings report, see our Market Insights post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/44719.
 Brazil reported July soybean exports were 8.67 MMT vs 12.29 MMT in June and 9.96 MMT last year, bringing marketing year to date (Feb-Jul) exports to 68.8 MMT vs 67.3 MMT last year. Based on the USDA’s 86.5 MMT annual export estimate, Brazil would have 17.7 MMT of soybeans yet to ship during Aug-Jan vs 14.3 MMT during the same period last year. July corn exports were 1.98 MMT vs 128k tonnes in June and 3.98 MMT last year. March-July marketing year to date exports of 2.54 MMT compare to 4.79 MMT last year.
ï‚· Ethiopia canceled their tender for 400k tonnes of wheat, which closed July 19, with only 1 offer believed to have been submitted. Taiwan tendered for 48k tonnes of U.S. wheat for Sept 24-Oct 8 shipment. Taiwan bought 55k tonnes of South African corn for Oct 21-Nov 9 shipment, priced at +249.38 cents CZ (~$318/tonne c&f), while the lowest Argentine offer was +259.69 cents CZ and the lowest Brazilian offer was +310.00 cents CZ. No U.S. corn was offered.
ï‚· August soybean meal deliveries continue to recirculate at 94 contracts today (last trade date 7/28/21), while soybean oil deliveries remain at 1 contract (LTD 6/02/21). There have yet to be any soybean deliveries for the cycle

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