-South American forecast remains mostly favorable – some Brazilian expected totals lowered
-No USDA sales announcements
-Indonesia expects higher 2021 palm oil exports despite huge export tax increase
-USDA report Thursday – trade estimate summary included
USDA will release the monthly WASDE report on Thursday. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42291. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 An Indonesian official said, despite the recently-announced significant increase in palm oil export levies to support the biodiesel industry, which will prompt a surge in the crude palm oil export tax to $180/tonne from $55/tonne currently effective December 10, they do not expect to see a material negative impact on Indonesian exports in 2021, as they project an increase to 36 MMT from this year’s estimated 32 MMT. The new system will keep the minimum export levy at $55/tonne, but will rise $15/tonne for every $25/tonne increase in palm oil prices above the $670/tonne minimum reference price.
 France’s first estimate of soft wheat planted area for the 2021/22 crop of 4.73 million hectares (11.7 million acres) was up
sharply from last year’s 4.21 mil hectares (10.4 mil acres), a 12.4% increase, but was well short of market expectations of an
increase to 5.0-5.2 million hectares (12.4-12.8 mil acres) and still below 2019/20’s 4.98 mil ha (12.3 mil acres), as well as the
most-recent 5-year average of 4.83 mil ha (11.9 mil acres). Winter rapeseed planted area was estimated at 1.13 mil ha (2.8 mil
acres), up slightly from last year’s 1.11 mil ha, but still below the 5-year average of 1.36 mil ha.
ï‚· There were no USDA sales announcements this morning.
 Egypt is targeting wheat production this season at more than 10 MMT vs last year’s 9.5 MMT, continuing the steady increases in area/production established in recent years. For reference, Egypt produced 8.5 MMT of wheat in 2015/16 and has steadily increased since. However, demand has outpaced the modest production gains, as wheat imports have steadily increased, as well, and are estimated by USDA at this year 13.0 MMT vs 11.9 MMT in 2015/16.
Weather
Brazil saw rains of .40-1â€, isolated to 1â€+, across the northern 1/3 of Parana, into most of Sao Paulo and the southern ½ of Minas Gerais and Goias yesterday, with things mainly dry in the rest of their growing regions. There are no major changes in the five day outlook with 2-4†expected across most of Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, with totals of .50-1â€+ in most of MGDS and Sao Paulo. Totals from Parana south look to be generally under .35â€. The 6-10 day outlook calls for 1-2†to fall in most of the Brazilian growing regions, but with totals of .25-.75†in Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais, a reduction for these three states from yesterday’s 1-2†forecast. Argentina was dry yesterday and will remain so through Thursday. A front is expected to move through Friday/Saturday producing .25-.75†rains with coverage of around 45%. There is no strong bias to the rainfall amounts, although Santa Fe and Entre Rios could see the best coverage. Improved rainfall/amounts continue to be indicated for the 6-10 day period with .50-1†expected, some 1â€+ totals also possible, and coverage around 85%.