-CONAB bumps Brazil soybean crop higher/corn slightly lower
-USDA reports today at 11:00 AM CT
-Good Brazil rains in forecast – Argentina not so much
-Brazilian soybean planting catches up
-Malaysian palm oil stocks slightly above ideas, but multi-year low
Due to the Veterans Day holiday on Wednesday, the EIA’s weekly energy/ethanol data will be released on Thursday, Export Sales on Friday and the CFTC COT data will be delayed until Monday. USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out today at 11:00 AM CT. A summary of the trade estimates is on the following page. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41995.
 Brazil slightly raised their estimate of coming soybean crop to 135.0 MMT from 133.7 MMT previously and would be up solidly from this year’s 124.8 MMT. CONAB’s new estimates compare to USDA currently at 133.0 MMT new crop/126.0 MMT old crop. Estimated new crop soybean planted area was raised to 38.254 million hectares (94.5 mil acres) from 37.883 mil ha (93.6 mil acres) previously and up notably from last year’s 36.95 mil ha (91.3 mil acres). They put new crop soybean exports at 85.0 MMT, in line with USDA, and up from this year’s 82.7 MMT, which USDA is currently estimating at 81.0 MMT. CONAB ticked their estimate of the new corn crop down to 104.9 MMT from 105.2 MMT previously, but still up slightly from this year’s 102.5 MMT (USDA 110.0 MMT new crop/102.0 MMT old crop). Total corn planted area is estimated at 18.442 mil ha (45.6 mil acres), with 1st crop area at 4.151 mil ha (10.3 mil acres) vs 4.236 mil ha (10.5 mil acres) last year and 2nd corn crop area (safrinha) at 13.755 mil ha (34.0 mil acres), unchanged from last year. CONAB sees new crop corn exports at 35.0 MMT, little-changed from this year’s 34.5 MMT and well below the USDA’s current 39.0 MMT new crop estimate (USDA 34.0 MMT old crop). This year’s wheat imports are estimated at 6.8 MMT (6.7 MMT previously/6.67 MMT last year) vs USDA
currently at 6.7 MMT.
 China’s monthly balance sheet update, once again, reflected no changes from the previous month, with 20/21 corn imports still left at 7.0 MMT vs 7.6 MMT last year, which is entirely not reflective of total global purchases already made seen in excess of 15 MMT, with the USDA ag attaché penciling imports to be 22 MMT, and new crop soybean imports unchanged from last month at 95.1 MMT vs 98.5 MMT last year. China left their estimated total corn stocks change from last year unchanged at a decline of 16.5 MMT, while new crop soybean stocks are seen rising 650k tonnes year-over-year. 2020/21 total vegoil imports were also left unchanged this month at 8.45 MMT and would be down from last year’s 9.27 MMT.
 The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported end October palm oil stocks were 1.573 MMT, which were slightly above average expectations of 1.557 MMT, but down from September stocks of 1.722 MMT, sharply below last year’s 2.352 MMT and were the lowest monthly stocks since June 2017. October palm oil production of 1.724 MMT was modestly below average expectations of 1.765 MMT, down from 1.869 MMT in Sept, the lowest since May and below year ago Oct production of 1.796 MMT. Malaysia exported 1.674 MMT of palm oil in Oct vs expectations of 1.700 MMT, 1.612 MMT in sept and 1.642 MMT last year.
 U.S. corn harvest is now 91% complete, in line with expectations and continuing to run ahead of average of 80%. Soybean harvest is 92% complete vs 94% expected and 90% average. No issues are expected as harvest of both crops finishes up. U.S. winter wheat crop conditions improved 2% in good/excellent last week to 45% vs 44% expected and 54% last year. Overall conditions remain the lowest since 2012 and the 2nd lowest since 2001, though. For full details of yesterday’s Crop Progress update, see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/42045.
ï‚· Brazil soybean planting continues to accelerate quickly, now 54% complete vs 35% last week and ticking ahead of average of 52% after early notable delays. 1st corn crop planting is 73% complete vs 72% average.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 130k tonnes of corn to South Korea this morning.
 Iraq said they have over 5 MMT of wheat currently in strategic reserves after purchases were made from this year’s local production, which is enough to last for one year, leaving them self-sufficient for 2020/21.
Weather
Rains of .30-.85†fell across most of the Brazilian growing regions yesterday, with the only exceptions being only few light showers in the southern ½ of RGDS, while the northern ½ of Minas Gerais was dry. In Argentina, rains of .25-.75†fell across La Pampa, far southwest Buenos Aries and the southern 1/3 of Cordoba yesterday. Daily hit and miss showers and thunderstorms will bring rains of .75-1.5â€+ to the majority of Brazilian growing regions in the next 5 days, with only the southern ½ of RGDS to miss the rains. Widespread good rains are expected in the 6-10 day period with .75-1.5â€+ amounts with around 95% coverage, including some 2-3†amounts for Minas Gerais and Goias. Most of Argentina looks dry this week, but most of La Pampa and Cordoba, as well as the southern ½ of Buenos Aries should see .50-1â€. In the 6-10 day period, .25-.75†is expected across far northern Santa Fe and into most of Corrientes, but the rest of Argentina looks dry.