-Notable Brazilian corn/soybean imports questionable despite tariff elimination
-Slow Brazilian soybean planting pushes expected widespread harvest later
-USDA reports routine soybean sales to unknown
-U.S. corn harvest quickly accelerates
-Ukraine wheat prices at 21-month high
 Despite the temporary elimination of import tariffs, Brazilian analysts doubt there will be large-scale imports from the U.S. given the overall high price structure. The window for imports is relatively small, only lasting through the end of 2020. Official trade data shows Brazil imported 528k tonnes of soybeans from January through September. AgRural sees total calendar year imports at 800k tonnes, leaving less than 300k to import during Oct-Dec, while Safras & Mercado sees exports at a maximum 1.0 MMT, but is currently estimating 850k tonnes. We would also note the USDA ag attaché sees a few regulatory and logistical issues likely limiting imports from the U.S. of corn and soybeans. Specifically, there are at least 9 biotech varieties of U.S. corn and soybeans that are not approved in Brazil. With commercially-sold supplies not separated by variety, Brazilian importers would need to apply for a special approval with the country’s biosecurity commission and there are only two meetings of the commission through the end of the year. Additionally, with most of Brazil’s crush facilities at interior locations, there are considerable costs involved with moving supplies from port locations, while current prices for domestic supplies and the pencil of U.S. supplies plus freight to Brazil are at near parity.
 Brazilian soybean planting is only 6% complete, the slowest since 2010, and compares to 20% last year and the most-recent 5-year average of 17%. While a solid improvement in rains is expected over the next week or so to improve soil moisture conditions and accelerate planting, the slow start to planting will push widespread harvesting about a month later than seen in recent years. Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 20% on average by around February 15 over the last five years so that will be pushed into early/mid-March this year.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 132k tonnes of soybeans to unknown this morning.
ï‚· Ukraine milling wheat export prices hit a 21-month high of $255/tonne fob according to APK-Inform, as prices continue to firm amid the overall dry conditions and growing concerns of new crop production prospects.
ï‚· Algeria issued another tender for an unspecified amount of wheat with offers due by tomorrow. In their last tender a week ago, they bought an estimated 600k tonnes of Baltic Sea region/western EU wheat at $263.50/tonne c&f.
ï‚· South Korea bought 130k tonnes of feed wheat, with half U.S. origin for March 15-April 15 shipment and priced at $266.84/tonne c&f, with the other half U.S., Canada or Australia optional at $268.92/tonne c&f for April 1-20 shipment.
ï‚· U.S. corn harvest jumped to 60% complete from 41% the week prior and was above average expectations of 57% and solidly ahead of average of 43%. Harvest is the western belt is now blazing along with IA 65% complete vs 29% avg, MN 63% vs 29% avg and SD 64% vs 24% avg for a few examples. The final crop condition update of the year was provided yesterday at 61% good/excellent, unchanged for the week and compared to 56% g/e last year. Overall conditions finished the season the 2nd lowest of the last 8 years, only modestly beating last year, while being below each of those from 2013-2018.
ï‚· U.S. soybean harvest is now 75% complete, continuing to run sharply ahead of average of 58%, but was a bit below average expectations of 79% as it appears some of the focus shifted to corn in the western belt. Nonetheless, the western belt is nearly complete with IA, MN, NE, SD and ND all reporting soybean harvest of 90% or higher vs average in the five states of 52-67%.
 U.S. winter wheat planting is 77% complete vs 74% last year and 72% average. Crop conditions will begin next week and continue through the end of November at which time they’ll stop being regularly reported until early April.  For full details on yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress report, please see our post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41821.
Weather
Brazil saw .25-.75†across around 85% north of Parana yesterday, but dry elsewhere. Argentina saw .20-.65†across the northern ½ of Buenos Aries into the southern ½ of Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Rains of .40-1â€+ with 85% coverage are expected north of Parana this week, but dry elsewhere through the end of the week. Widespread .75-1.5â€+ amounts are expected around 85-90% of all Brazilian growing areas in the 6-10 day period. Argentina will see .50-1.5â€, locally 1.5â€+, for most growing regions the first half of this week. More widespread rains of .50-1.25†are expected in the 6-10 day period.