-Slow early Brazilian soybean planting could support later U.S. exports
-U.S. soybean harvest zooming along
-USDA reports routine soybean sale to unknown
-USDA reports Friday – trade estimate summary included
USDA’s monthly Crop Production and WASDE reports will be out Friday at 11:00 AM CT. Our pre-report commentary/analysis can be found on Market Insights at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41664. A summary of the average trade estimates is on the following page.
 Soybean planting in Brazil’s earliest planting states is off to a slow start as drier than desired conditions continue. Parana, which accounted for 17% of last year’s total Brazilian crop is only 6% planted vs 14% last year and 15% average, while Mato Grosso (29% of last year’s crop) is 2% planted vs 7% last year and 5% average. The slow early planting is very likely to push back their early harvest activity relative to last year/average, as well, potentially allowing the U.S. export window to remain open a bit longer. By January 24 last year, 13% of Mato Grosso’s crop and 4% of Parana’s was already harvested, accounting for around 5.5 MMT of soybeans. However, continued historically strong domestic prices should incentivize farmers to still push soybean acres with an increase from last year expected overall.
 Yesterday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress update put the U.S. corn harvest at 25% complete, in line with expectations of 26% and average of 24%. Iowa corn harvest is 25% complete vs 10% average, SD 20% vs 9% avg and MN 14% vs 7% avg. Eastern belt harvest is slightly behind average. Soybean harvest is now 38% complete, a bit ahead of expectations of 36% and well
ahead of average of 28%. Iowa soybean harvest is already 55% complete vs 20% average, SD 60% vs 27% avg and MN 61%
vs 35% avg. Eastern belt harvest is slightly behind average, as well for soybeans.
ï‚· U.S. corn crop conditions improved 1% in good/excellent last week to 62% and compare to 56% last year. Soybean conditions were unchanged at 64% g/e and compare to 53% g/e last year.
 Winter wheat planting is now 52% complete vs 50% expected and is slightly ahead of average of 47% and last year’s 48%. KS
is 56% planted vs 41% average, while OK, TX, NE and SD are mostly in line with average. IL SRW planting is 29% complete vs
16% average, while IN and OH are 4% and 3% ahead of average, respectively.
ï‚· USDA reported the sale of 154k tonnes of soybeans to unknown for 2020/21 delivery this morning. China remains on holiday through tomorrow.
Weather
Dry weather dominated most of the Brazilian growing regions yesterday, with rains of .40-1†falling in both the SW and NE 1/3 of Mato Grosso. Dry weather also dominated most of the Argentine growing regions.
Brazilian growing areas remain mostly dry this week with the only activity being .30-.80†across northern RGDS, most of Santa
Catarina and southern Parana, along with .20-.60†for most of Mato Grosso. The 6-10 day still sees a decent improvement with rains to arrive in areas north of Parana of .40-1â€+ with coverage of around 85% from the weekend into early next week. Argentine growing regions look to see mainly dry weather occur for the next 10 days.
The majority of the U.S. corn belt looks dry for the week ahead. A few showers are possible along the OH River by later Friday and early Saturday producing .20-.60.†A front looks to move through by Monday and Tuesday of next week. Changes have rains impacting mainly MN and NW IA with totals of .40-1â€. Amounts in the rest of IA, into WI and the northern ½ of IL look to be generally under .25â€. Other changes have the remnants of hurricane Delta to bring totals of .30-.80†to far southern IL, the
southern ½ of IN and most of OH by the first half of next week.