-NOPA crush report out today
-Soybean/corn crop conditions slip again
-USDA reports more soybean/corn sales
-China hog recovery in high gear
-Record Sept Russian grain exports expected
 NOPA will release their monthly crush report today at 11:00 AM CT providing data for the month of August. The average estimate of August soybean crush by NOPA members is 169.5 million bushels (163.0-173.0 million range of ideas), down slightly from 172.8 million in July but marginally exceeding last year’s 168.1 million bushels to set another new record for the month. If NOPA crush is mostly in line with expectations, nationwide crush for August would be implied around 180-181 million bushels and would put 2019/20 total crush at 1.870 billion bushels, exactly at the USDA’s current estimate. The average estimate of end August soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members is 1.515 billion pounds (1.420-1.600 billion range), down from 1.619 billion in July, but still above last year’s 1.401 billion. If accurate, NOPA soybean oil stocks for August would be right in the middle of the last five years’ range of 1.401-1.623 billion pounds.
ï‚· USDA reported soybean sales this morning of 132k tonnes to China and 132k tonnes to unknown, along with corn sales of 120k tonnes to unknown, as well.
 Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress update showed U.S. soybean conditions declining another 2% in good/excellent to 63%, with corn down 1% g/e to 60% vs expectations for both to be unchanged following the recent improvement in rains. This marked the 6th consecutive weekly decline in corn conditions and 5th for soybeans. Corn conditions are not only modestly above last year’s 55% g/e in mid-September, while soybeans remain a bit better compared to last year’s 54% g/e at this time. Overall, corn conditions are the 2nd lowest of the last 7 years, while soybean conditions area a shade below the 5-year average for mid-September. There are concerns about the expected excessive rains from Hurricane Sally across the Delta with corn harvest in MS 67% complete and 70% in AL, but the LA crop is fully harvested. Additionally, soybean harvest has yet to start in AL, while MS is only 12% harvested with LA 50% complete.
ï‚· Nationwide, the US corn harvest is 5% complete vs 5% average, with 41% mature vs 32% average. Soybeans dropping leaves at 37% compares to 31% average. Spring wheat harvest is 92% complete, in line with average, while winter wheat planting is 10% complete vs 8% average.
 For full details of this week’s Crop Progress update, please see out post at https://portal.rjobrien.com/MarketInsights/Blog/Read/41435.
ï‚· China reported its nationwide pig herd in August was up 31% from last year, while the sow herd was up 37%, as the recovery in the hog industry strongly pushes forward.
ï‚· The U.S. Grains Council said they do not expect global ethanol production to return to pre-pandemic levels until sometime in 2022, with more than 250 plants worldwide having closed.
 Russian rail ag handler Rusagrotrans sees the country’s grain exports setting a new record for September at 5.85 MMT, including 5.2 MMT of wheat which would considerably beat last year’s September wheat exports of 4.16 MMT and the previous record of 4.56 MMT in 2018. They put August wheat exports at 4.9 MMT, which is larger than Sovecon’s latest idea of 4.5 MMT, and would match the August record set last year.
 France further ticked their estimate of this year’s soft wheat crop lower to 29.5 MMT from 29.7 MMT previously and is down more than 25% from last year’s 39.6 MMT. The barley crop was lowered to 11.0 MMT from 11.3 MMT previously and compares to last year’s 13.7 MMT. The French corn crop was left unchanged this month at 14.4 MMT and is up from last year’s 13.0 MMT, while the rapeseed crop was ticked down to 3.27 MMT from 3.33 MMT last month and last year’s 3.50 MMT.
 Offers in Pakistan’s tender for 170k tonnes of wheat for arrival by the end of the year ranged from $274-$277/tonne c&f. Ethiopia issued tenders for 200k and 400k tonnes of wheat, with total open tenders now for 680k tonnes.
Weather
Dry weather looks to dominate the majority of the corn belt through the week ahead. A few showers from the outer edge of the remnants of Sally
could bringing totals of .40†or less to the OH River Valley Thursday and some light showers look to bring rains of generally less than .30†to
southern MN and northern IA by Thursday night and early Friday. The 6-10 day outlook shows the dry weather to continue through the weekend
and then a front to bring totals of .30-.80â€+ to most of MN, IA, WI and the northern 1/3 to ½ of IL by around Tuesday of next week. Little to no
rains are seen for the rest of the region in this time frame. Temps in the next 10 days will run below average in most of the belt, but no cold air
threats are seen.